China's third-quarter GDP grew 4.5 percent, beating the 4.4 percent forecast and rebounding from three-year lows, while growth for the first nine months reached 4.6 percent. Booming exports offset weak consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn, and analysts expect China to meet its 4.5 to 5.0 percent 2026 target without additional stimulus. Retail sales lagged industrial output, fixed-asset investment fell 7.2 percent in January to September, and unemployment eased to 5.2 percent in September. Exports rose by more than a third, putting China on track to surpass last year's US$1.2 trillion trade surplus, but economists warn about reliance on exports and weak domestic demand. ANZ flagged trade tensions and geopolitical risks, while Societe Generale's Michelle Lam said a policy shift toward household incomes and consumption is needed; the yuan rose to its highest since July 2022.
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