See the full story in the original article.
Original headline: Coinbase ( COIN ) Is Leaning on Institutions as Retail Revenue Fell 31 %
Read the original on insidermonkey.com ↗
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Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
• NeutralBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/18/2026 | 82,116.00 |
| Change that session | +0.77% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- J . P . Morgan Cites S & P 500 Midterm History as Coinbase and Circle Shares Diverge
Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) shares moved in different directions from Sept. 30 through Oct. 16. At Friday's close, COIN was $173.16, down 5.79%, and CRCL was $82.22, down 5.46%. COIN fell about 7.1% over that period while CRCL rose about 0.06%. Ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, Goldman Sachs Asset Management sees a divided government as its base case, while J.P. Morgan Asset Management found the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after every midterm election since 1950, with gains averaging about 15%. Neither cited report makes a specific forecast for COIN or CRCL.
- CME vs. Coinbase Global: Which Financial Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
The article compares CME Group, the world's largest derivatives marketplace, with Coinbase Global, a major crypto trading platform, for 2026 investors. CME reported fiscal 2025 revenue of nearly $6.5 billion, up 6.4%, a net margin of 62%, free cash flow of about $4.2 billion, and a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.1. Coinbase reported revenue of nearly $7.2 billion, up 9.4%, but a net margin of nearly 17.6% on net income of roughly $1.3 billion, with free cash flow of nearly $2.4 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of about 0.5. The article notes that stock-based compensation was 34.6% of Coinbase's operating cash flow versus 2.2% at CME. It outlines differing risks: intense exchange competition and global regulation for CME, and regulatory uncertainty and revenue concentration in Bitcoin and Ethereum for Coinbase.
- Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC shed $54.9 million, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows. The inflow more than erased last week's $228.5 million of withdrawals, but funds remain about $90.5 million in net outflows for October, according to CoinDesk calculations. Ether funds moved the opposite way, losing $103.3 million in their fourth consecutive session of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that.
- JPMorgan Bitcoin Forecast Gives BTC a Major Edge Over US Stocks
In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released October 19, JPMorgan Asset Management projects a 10% annual compounded return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term Bitcoin forecast, above the 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for REITs and 5.5% for gold. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted the forecast, though the article notes these are modeled estimates rather than a short-term market call. At the same time, JPMorgan assigns Bitcoin 55% annualized volatility, roughly three times the approximately 18% assumed for U.S. large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold. The bank has not added Bitcoin to its main covariance matrices, citing its volatility and unstable correlations with conventional assets, and instead analyzes it in a separate, smaller matrix. For comparison, JPMorgan projects 7% annually for a portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds over the same horizon.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.7 million in net inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake in nearly a month and the strongest since Sept. 22, after two weeks of net weekly withdrawals. BlackRock's IBIT led with $665.2 million in inflows, offsetting $83.6 million in withdrawals from Fidelity's FBTC and $54.9 million from Grayscale's GBTC, while other funds recorded no net flows. Despite the rebound, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain about $88 million negative for October. Spot Ether ETFs saw $103.3 million in net outflows on Monday, led by $95.4 million from BlackRock's ETHA, marking their third consecutive week of net withdrawals.
- Iran Delivers Bad News to the World
Iran's crude oil exports have fallen from nearly 1 million barrels per day in July to zero since late August, as the US reimposed a naval blockade from mid-July after a ceasefire deal collapsed. Ship-tracking and satellite data cited by the EU show no crude tankers have berthed at Kharg Island, the country's main export hub, since late August, and Jask port has seen none either. Before the blockade, Iran exported about 1.8 million barrels per day over the 12 months to April, mostly to China, and Chinese refiners are now seeking alternative supplies. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have also risen, with 25 vessels targeted in the first two weeks of October, versus 18 in September and 15 in August.
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The article predicts October 21 could be a pivotal day for the stock market, as Meta Platforms (META) becomes the first of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants to report third-quarter earnings after the close. In its latest quarter, Meta's total revenue rose 28% to $60 billion, with ad revenue at $59 billion. Investors will be watching whether its capital spending, now about 35% of revenue, is translating into growth. Meta's report could hint at the earnings outlook for other tech giants and set the direction for the S&P 500 in the coming days, with the first trading session after the report on Thursday.
- BlackRock files for third Bitcoin ETF, still no Solana or XRP
BlackRock has filed a preliminary prospectus with the SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF (PBIT), which would mark its third Bitcoin ETF filing. Instead of holding Bitcoin directly, the fund would use options linked to IBIT across three overlapping sets, aiming for limited downside protection in exchange for capped gains. Each options tranche initially targets a maximum loss exposure of about 10%, before fees and expenses. BlackRock warned the fund offers no fixed protection start value, floor or cap, so investors could face bigger losses. IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with $65.7 billion in net assets, and ETHA, with $8 billion, are already in BlackRock's lineup, while it has no US spot ETFs for Solana or XRP yet.
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