In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released October 19, JPMorgan Asset Management projects a 10% annual compounded return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term Bitcoin forecast, above the 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for REITs and 5.5% for gold. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted the forecast, though the article notes these are modeled estimates rather than a short-term market call. At the same time, JPMorgan assigns Bitcoin 55% annualized volatility, roughly three times the approximately 18% assumed for U.S. large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold. The bank has not added Bitcoin to its main covariance matrices, citing its volatility and unstable correlations with conventional assets, and instead analyzes it in a separate, smaller matrix. For comparison, JPMorgan projects 7% annually for a portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds over the same horizon.
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Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
▲ Likely positiveBitcoin
Relevance: medium
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 81,938.40 |
| Change that session | -0.22% |
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