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Original headline: El Niño Coming Fury : A World Braces for Hunger – Sri Lanka Guardian
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This year's exceptionally strong El Niño, amplified by climate change, is driving extreme weather around the globe. It adds a 'terrifying' level of risk to coral reefs, where UN nature panel chair David Obura says reef-building species have sharply deteriorated since the 2008 census, with 44% now threatened with extinction. In El Salvador, August temperatures were 4.3°C above normal and livestock are suffering from the drought, while in Argentina the Iguazu River flowed at six times its normal rate, forcing tourist trails to close and prompting evacuations near the Paraná River. UN development chief Alexander De Croo warns that El Niño, combined with high energy costs and interest rates, could push millions into poverty, and severe drought is affecting more than half of Sudan. Whether it sets a record depends on how it is measured: Britain's Met Office calls it 'unprecedented', while US forecasters have not declared one yet, though NOAA expects it to surpass the strongest event in its dataset, from 1982.
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NOAA raised its odds that the 2026 El Niño will break every record since 1950 to 75% in its September 10 update, up from 69%, with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface anomalies already above +3.0°C. Colombia's 2026 coffee crop is forecast at 12.5 million bags, down 8% from 13.7 million in 2025, and the National Federation of Coffee Growers says El Niño, not the magnitude 7.4 earthquake on August 10, is the main threat. Bank of America ranks Colombia the most inflation-vulnerable economy in the region, with inflation potentially rising by up to 1.8 percentage points under a severe El Niño, as the peso touched 3,205 per dollar. In Argentina, about 10 million tons of wheat, roughly 35% of the projected harvest, could face flood risk in vulnerable zones, though El Niño is seen as broadly positive for the season due to higher rainfall.
- Paraguay El Niño Flood Warning Cites 1983 Levels
Paraguay's emergency minister, Arsenio Zárate, warned on Thursday, 15 October, that an El Niño flood could reach levels comparable to 1983, when the Paraguay River at Asunción peaked at a record 9.01 metres. The river stood at 2.29 metres on Wednesday after rising 21 centimetres in a day, and about 3,300 families in low-lying riverside districts could be affected if it reaches 3.5 metres. Asunción's council approved an emergency declaration with a G. 7,000 million (about US$1.2 million) budget for supplies and repairs, while Defence Minister Óscar González said the Chacarita district worries him greatly. NOAA rates a strong to very strong El Niño as likely, and its next update is due on Thursday, 12 November.
- Global food inflation expected to intensify as supply shocks mount
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.
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