Bùi Văn Huy, General Director of FIDT, believes the VN-Index is accumulating around 1,700 points, with a bottom likely forming within about 20 points, most likely as a "flat bottom" rather than a V-shaped recovery. The market P/E is about 13 times forward 2027 earnings, or about 10 times excluding five Vingroup-group stocks. Interest rate pressure remains: the Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4%, US inflation rose to 3.7%, and Vietnam's CPI rose 5.08% in September, while 12-month deposit rates at many private banks kept climbing. Although GDP grew 9.95% in Q3 2026, he says the market is pricing in the capital cost of that growth, and the biggest risk is a Fed hike stronger than expected.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Chuyên gia dự báo bất ngờ về vùng đáy của VN-Index
Keywords
VNINDEXFedinterest ratesvaluation
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
VNINDEX
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 1,705.91 |
| Change that session | +0.45% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Stock accumulation opportunities start to emerge, expert points to several notable stock groups
General Director Bùi Văn Huy of FIDT says the VN-Index's P/E of about 12 times (about 10 times excluding the Vingroup group) looks more attractive, but weak liquidity makes gradual accumulation the more suitable approach. He notes that investors who have not yet deployed capital could test with 20–30% of their planned amount, keeping the rest in deposits or short-term bond funds, while reviewing funds heavily concentrated in a few stocks. FIDT's estimates show Q3 2026 profit growth diverging sharply: residential real estate up 185%, oil and gas up 141%, retail up 90.9%, steel up 40.8%, while construction is seen falling 85.8%. However, excluding Vinhomes (VHM), the remaining residential real estate companies' profits are estimated to fall about 0.4%, indicating that growth is concentrated in large sector leaders.
- Governor: 'Interest rates on existing loans should also be considered for cuts'
Governor Phạm Đức Ấn has asked banks to prioritize rate cuts for production and business loans, applied selectively rather than across the board, and to consider applying them to existing loans. The average lending rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 10.7% in August, about 3 points higher than a year earlier, while legacy floating-rate loans for individuals reached 12-14%, and some car loans 16-17%. Banks were told to cut operating costs, share profits and reduce funding costs, including lowering deposit rates for terms of six months or more by at least 0.5%. Several banks, including BIDV, Vietcombank, Agribank and Sacombank, have announced preferential loan packages with rate reductions of up to 2 percentage points.
- Stock market awaits boost from trading infrastructure
SGI Capital says Vietnam's macro picture after the first three quarters of 2026 still shows bright spots, but the stock market enters the fourth quarter facing two risks: policy pressure and liquidity risk from margin leverage. After the FTSE upgrade, trading liquidity fell below VND 15,000 billion per session and foreign investors turned to heavy net selling, driven by fears of rising global inflation and interest rates. Margin debt at a historically high level is seen as a risk that could trigger forced-sale pressure as cash demand rises in the fourth quarter. Longer term, Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16/11/2026, introduces CCP clearing and removes the 100% cash pre-funding (NPF) requirement for foreign institutional investors, which Hàn Hữu Hậu, CEO of Hy Maxpro, called an important upgrade.
- Monetary Policy Management: State Bank Directives and Balancing Growth with System Safety
According to PGS.TS. Trần Hoàng Ngân, the State Bank's call to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for tenors of 6 months or more, and lending rates by 1.5–2% per year, is a boost for businesses at year-end. Outstanding credit to the whole economy exceeded 20.72 million billion VND as of October 14, 2026, up 11.44% from end-2025. On October 18, 2026, the SBV issued Official Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT directing credit institutions to cut rates and costs, avoid deposit rate hikes and not lower credit standards. Some banks moved quickly: BIDV offered short-term VND loans from 6% per year from October 15, 2026, while Vietcombank committed to cut lending rates by at least 2% per year until year-end.
- Maybank: Lending rates may have peaked, Vietnam could cut foreign borrowing costs
Maybank says lending rates may have peaked after a 16 October meeting in which a deputy minister and banks pledged to cut priority-sector lending rates by 150-200 basis points. The State Bank also asked banks to cut deposit rates for 6-month and longer terms by at least 50 basis points, and BIDV, Vietcombank and Agribank pledged 200 basis point loan cuts through the end of 2026. However, reductions will be uneven across sectors, the conditions for the loan packages have not been disclosed, and a sustainable broad decline to a reasonable level of around 7-10% would require lower capital costs across the system. Longer term, based on Maybank's review of past rating upgrades, achieving investment-grade status could cut Vietnam's foreign borrowing costs by 150-250 basis points, and Maybank expects the upgrade to be accelerated in 2027.
- State Bank Governor calls for interest rate cuts to be considered for both existing outstanding loans and new loans
On 19/10/2026, Governor Phạm Đức Ấn chaired a meeting with deputy governors, the Association of Banks and leaders of 46 commercial banks on banking operations. He said that as of last weekend, deposit mobilization had grown 11.22% and credit 11.44%, and the VND gap between loans and deposits had narrowed to below 1.5 quadrillion dong from nearly 2 quadrillion. Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT requires credit institutions to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for terms of six months or more, and to reduce lending rates by 1.5–2% per year for production, business and priority sectors. Cuts must match each bank's financial capacity, be tied to cost reductions and profit sharing, avoid across-the-board moves, and apply to both existing and new loans.
Related markets
Latest news
- JPMorgan's JPM Coin, representing dollar deposits, is coming to Ethereum: Bloomberg
JPMorgan will make JPM Coin, a token representing its dollar deposits, available to institutional clients on Ethereum, according to Bloomberg. The bank says Ethereum's liquidity makes it attractive to crypto companies seeking blockchain payments and to financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets. The move extends JPMorgan's blockchain work beyond Base and its private Kinexys network, which processes more than $7 billion daily. The bank did not say when the token will go live on Ethereum. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is among US banks planning a shared tokenized deposit network, but it was not on Swift's list of 17 banks preparing live transactions on its blockchain ledger in July.
- Cerrado Gold Reports 21% Year-Over-Year Increase in Q3 2026 Production Results at Minera Don Nicolas
Cerrado Gold reported Q3 2026 production of 16,685 GEO at the Minera Don Nicolas (MDN) mine in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, up 21% from 13,832 GEO in Q3 2025. Year-to-date output reached 44,942 GEO, up 23% from 36,432 GEO in the comparable 2025 period. Heap leach output held steady at 9,649 GEO, while CIL output rose to 7,036 GEO as higher-grade Calandrias material, generally above 2.5 g/t gold, was routed to the Martinetas mill. Laboratory tests on selected material showed gold recoveries of up to 95%, versus about 60% expected from heap leaching, and the company now expects full-year 2026 production at the upper end of its 50,000 to 60,000 GEO guidance while targeting a new PEA by late Q1 2027.
- Is Visa Stock Still a Buy After Gaining 14% This Year?
Visa shares hit an all-time high of $401, up about 12% over the past two weeks from $359 at the end of September and up 14% year to date. Key catalysts include approval from the People's Bank of China to set up a bankcard clearing institution in China and the move of Visa Direct's stablecoin to commercial deployment on Oct. 15. Baird and BMO Capital both raised their price targets. Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Oct. 27 and has raised its dividend every year since 2009, last year by 14% to $0.67 per share. The author still considers the stock a buy ahead of earnings, citing a forward P/E of 24.
- Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Markets start the week with AI stocks under pressure after hotter-than-expected September inflation raised expectations of higher US rates and fed worries about debt-funded AI spending. Last week the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 11.41% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.48%, with CoreWeave shedding about a quarter of its value and Oracle down 9.31%. Earnings are in focus, with SpaceX and Netflix reporting on Tuesday and Meta and Tesla on Wednesday after the close. Netflix reportedly plans to cut around 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 roles, its biggest reduction since 2022. SpaceX has also agreed to buy spectrum licenses from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a move into the wireless market.
- eMemory/PUFsecurity Showcases OCP S.A.F.E.-Approved PUFrt at OCP Global Summit, Strengthening AI Data Center Security with Caliptra
PUFsecurity, a subsidiary of eMemory Technology, was featured at Microsoft's Caliptra Workshop on Oct. 12, the opening day of the 2026 OCP Global Summit, which drew nearly 400 attendees. Its PUFrt received OCP S.A.F.E. Scope 3 approval after an independent assessment of its resistance to physical attacks such as fault injection and side-channel attacks, and is now listed on the OCP Marketplace. PUFrt provides the physical security foundation for Caliptra, an open-source hardware Root-of-Trust architecture, from key generation to chip mass-production testing. It has already been integrated into Caliptra products from ASPEED and security systems from several memory makers and networking chip vendors. The company says the milestone advances hardware security for cloud and AI infrastructure.
- Crypto vault deposits top $10 billion as lending risks draw regulatory scrutiny
Deposits into crypto lending vaults have risen from $4 billion at the start of last year to more than $10 billion, according to the Financial Times. Each vault is run by a 'curator' who selects lending strategies through smart contracts on DeFi platforms, sets risk limits and collects fees, with typical returns of 3% to 10% and riskier strategies reaching 20% or more. Risks include illiquid or hard-to-sell collateral, automatic liquidations, hacks and coding errors, while investors may focus on headline yields. Fintechs, digital asset treasury firms and hedge funds are among the main depositors, and Bitcoin lender Two Prime launched a vault on Pareto targeting 1.5% to 2% yields, with a minimum deposit of 5 WBTC and about $10 million of its own capital absorbing initial losses. U.S. and European regulators are examining whether existing rules should apply, and the SEC has questioned vaults that hold securities.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.