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- Inflation expected to ease to 3 . 7 % in September year but cash rate still forecast to rise
Markets price about a 70% chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift the Official Cash Rate, now 2.75%, on October 28, and a 100% chance by December. ANZ says that if Q3 CPI lands near its 3.7% forecast, an October hike stays on the table given the weaker NZ dollar and higher oil prices since September, with tradeable inflation seen at 4.2% and non-tradeable at 3.5%. Westpac expects the central bank to look past the slight dip in headline inflation, as fuel prices rebounded late in the quarter and inflation for the December quarter could exceed the 4.1% of the June quarter. BNZ believes the bank will keep lifting the cash rate, including at its upcoming October meeting, due to concerns over fuel prices and the weak NZ dollar.
- Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
U.S. stock futures were trending higher early Monday, shrugging off “Black Monday” crash fears circulating on social media. Wall Street is bracing for a pivotal week of mega-cap tech earnings while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue.
- Meta Earnings Preview: Can AI Growth Restore Confidence After the Nasdaq Sell-Off?
- Stocktwits Tech Watch: Netflix And Meta Report Earnings As Nvidia, Oracle Product Events Loom
Third-quarter earnings from Netflix, Meta Platforms, IBM and Western Digital this week are expected to set the tone for tech stocks. Netflix is forecast to lift revenue 12% to $12.88 billion and EPS 40% to $0.82, while Meta's revenue is expected to rise 24% to $63.39 billion, with investors watching its Muse AI tools closely. Western Digital's results may indicate whether memory demand is durable. Bloomberg reported that Nscale faces investor resistance to the $30 billion valuation it seeks for its IPO, with a group of investors urging $16–19 billion, after Microsoft exited a UK data center deal over power-related delays. Product events from Nvidia, Cloudflare and Oracle are also on the calendar, following a week in which SOXX fell 11.8%.
- iPhone Duo Preorders Sell Out Rapidly As Delivery Estimates Slip Into January
Apple's iPhone Duo, its first foldable phone and most expensive iPhone, opened for preorder on Friday, with launch-day pickup inventory selling out quickly and some online delivery estimates slipping into late January. Apple called demand 'nothing short of extraordinary' and said it will keep taking online orders. The Duo starts at $1,999 and passes $3,000 at the 2TB tier, and supply is expected to be tight; IDC expects Apple to ship about 7 million units this year, roughly 3% of its total, and sees shipments growing 70% next year, which could give Apple about 40% of the foldable market. Analysts say the high price could lift revenue, but it could also stretch out upgrade cycles. Apple's latest quarter brought in $109.4 billion in revenue, up 16%, but it guided September-quarter revenue growth to 9% to 11%, citing supply limits and memory costs.
- A Record Number of S&P 500 Companies Issued Upbeat Guidance Before Earnings Season. Should You Buy an Index Fund Now?
FactSet reports that 72 S&P 500 companies issued third-quarter EPS guidance above Wall Street's average estimates, the most for any quarter since it began tracking in 2006 and above the previous record of 65 in Q2 2021. Of 116 companies giving guidance, 62% pointed higher versus a five-year average of 40%, while only 44 guided lower. Technology accounts for 44 of the positive guides, led by software and chipmakers, and FactSet raised its Q3 earnings growth estimate for the index to 29.6% year over year. The author notes the forward P/E of about 19 sits near its 10-year average, though the record is concentrated in tech and the next year may be bumpy. Still, the author says he would consider buying the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at current levels.
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- JPMorgan's JPM Coin, representing dollar deposits, is coming to Ethereum: Bloomberg
JPMorgan will make JPM Coin, a token representing its dollar deposits, available to institutional clients on Ethereum, according to Bloomberg. The bank says Ethereum's liquidity makes it attractive to crypto companies seeking blockchain payments and to financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets. The move extends JPMorgan's blockchain work beyond Base and its private Kinexys network, which processes more than $7 billion daily. The bank did not say when the token will go live on Ethereum. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is among US banks planning a shared tokenized deposit network, but it was not on Swift's list of 17 banks preparing live transactions on its blockchain ledger in July.
- Cerrado Gold Reports 21% Year-Over-Year Increase in Q3 2026 Production Results at Minera Don Nicolas
Cerrado Gold reported Q3 2026 production of 16,685 GEO at the Minera Don Nicolas (MDN) mine in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, up 21% from 13,832 GEO in Q3 2025. Year-to-date output reached 44,942 GEO, up 23% from 36,432 GEO in the comparable 2025 period. Heap leach output held steady at 9,649 GEO, while CIL output rose to 7,036 GEO as higher-grade Calandrias material, generally above 2.5 g/t gold, was routed to the Martinetas mill. Laboratory tests on selected material showed gold recoveries of up to 95%, versus about 60% expected from heap leaching, and the company now expects full-year 2026 production at the upper end of its 50,000 to 60,000 GEO guidance while targeting a new PEA by late Q1 2027.
- Is Visa Stock Still a Buy After Gaining 14% This Year?
Visa shares hit an all-time high of $401, up about 12% over the past two weeks from $359 at the end of September and up 14% year to date. Key catalysts include approval from the People's Bank of China to set up a bankcard clearing institution in China and the move of Visa Direct's stablecoin to commercial deployment on Oct. 15. Baird and BMO Capital both raised their price targets. Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Oct. 27 and has raised its dividend every year since 2009, last year by 14% to $0.67 per share. The author still considers the stock a buy ahead of earnings, citing a forward P/E of 24.
- Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Markets start the week with AI stocks under pressure after hotter-than-expected September inflation raised expectations of higher US rates and fed worries about debt-funded AI spending. Last week the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 11.41% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.48%, with CoreWeave shedding about a quarter of its value and Oracle down 9.31%. Earnings are in focus, with SpaceX and Netflix reporting on Tuesday and Meta and Tesla on Wednesday after the close. Netflix reportedly plans to cut around 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 roles, its biggest reduction since 2022. SpaceX has also agreed to buy spectrum licenses from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a move into the wireless market.
- eMemory/PUFsecurity Showcases OCP S.A.F.E.-Approved PUFrt at OCP Global Summit, Strengthening AI Data Center Security with Caliptra
PUFsecurity, a subsidiary of eMemory Technology, was featured at Microsoft's Caliptra Workshop on Oct. 12, the opening day of the 2026 OCP Global Summit, which drew nearly 400 attendees. Its PUFrt received OCP S.A.F.E. Scope 3 approval after an independent assessment of its resistance to physical attacks such as fault injection and side-channel attacks, and is now listed on the OCP Marketplace. PUFrt provides the physical security foundation for Caliptra, an open-source hardware Root-of-Trust architecture, from key generation to chip mass-production testing. It has already been integrated into Caliptra products from ASPEED and security systems from several memory makers and networking chip vendors. The company says the milestone advances hardware security for cloud and AI infrastructure.
- Crypto vault deposits top $10 billion as lending risks draw regulatory scrutiny
Deposits into crypto lending vaults have risen from $4 billion at the start of last year to more than $10 billion, according to the Financial Times. Each vault is run by a 'curator' who selects lending strategies through smart contracts on DeFi platforms, sets risk limits and collects fees, with typical returns of 3% to 10% and riskier strategies reaching 20% or more. Risks include illiquid or hard-to-sell collateral, automatic liquidations, hacks and coding errors, while investors may focus on headline yields. Fintechs, digital asset treasury firms and hedge funds are among the main depositors, and Bitcoin lender Two Prime launched a vault on Pareto targeting 1.5% to 2% yields, with a minimum deposit of 5 WBTC and about $10 million of its own capital absorbing initial losses. U.S. and European regulators are examining whether existing rules should apply, and the SEC has questioned vaults that hold securities.
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