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- Even the real estate industry is losing faith in housing
Garry Marr writes that sentiment toward Canadian housing is more negative than he has seen in over 25 years covering the sector, including within the real estate industry itself. Steve Saretsky expects nominal prices to be only slightly higher a decade from now, while Ron Butler notes that after the 1990s downturn, prices did not recover with inflation until about 2012. CREA’s realtor count fell to over 155,000 from 160,000 a year earlier, and Q3 annualized sales of 450,000 were barely more than half the 775,000 of Q1 2021. The national average home price was $666,538 in September, down 1.6% year over year and below the $824,192 peak in February 2022. Urbanation reported GTHA condo sales doubled to 760 units in Q3, yet remained 78% below the 10-year average, with the foreign buyer ban expiring in January seen as a possible boost.
- Why have Canada house prices outpaced other countries?
New research by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), published October 20, finds that inflation-adjusted house prices in Canada have more than doubled since 2005, rising faster than most developed countries. Canada also has fewer homes per capita, leaving it more exposed to affordability pressures as demand grows. The study examines whether Canada's trend is part of a wider pattern or driven more by domestic factors. CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth says demand grew faster than supply for longer than in many comparable countries, and that understanding why can help identify the changes needed to improve affordability.
- CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year
- CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast
CREA forecasts 444,530 residential properties will trade through Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026, a 5.2% decline from 2025, mainly due to higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty over variable rates. The national average home price is forecast to rise 0.2% to $681,681 in 2026, with Ontario down 3% and British Columbia down 0.8%, while Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.7%) and Saskatchewan (+5%) post the largest gains. In 2027, home sales are forecast to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units and the average price to rise 1.2% to $689,909. The forecast assumes limited action by the Bank of Canada, which markets are pricing at roughly 100 basis points of hikes over the next year, while the current consensus leans toward smaller increases than that.
- Heavy distraction stalling Greater Vancouver housing market : report
A Royal LePage survey shows home sales and prices down across Greater Vancouver, with the average home price falling 4% year-over-year to $1.1 million in the third quarter of 2026. The median single-family detached home dropped 5.6% to $2 million and the median condo fell 4.1% to $710,000, while transaction volumes run 25 to 30% below the 10-year average. Realtor Randy Ryalls says geopolitical tensions, a trade war and upcoming elections have led buyers to pause, while development has nearly stalled and some investors are shifting capital to Alberta and Washington State. Royal LePage expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates through 2026, with a possible increase in early 2027 driven by inflation.
- Heavy distraction stalling Greater Vancouver housing market: report
A Royal LePage survey shows home sales and prices fell across Greater Vancouver in the third quarter of 2026, with the aggregate price down 4% year over year to $1.1 million and further declines expected in the final quarter. The median price of a single-family detached home dropped 5.6% to $2 million, while condo prices fell 4.1% to $710,000, and transaction volumes are running 25 to 30% below the 10-year average. Realtor Randy Ryalls said geopolitical tensions, a trade war and upcoming elections have led people to hold off, with developers nearly at a standstill and some investors shifting capital to Alberta and Washington State. Royal LePage president Phil Soper expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates through 2026, with a possible increase in early 2027.
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