Global food prices face renewed pressure into 2027 as shipping disruption, higher fertiliser costs and drought threaten supplies of wheat, rice and other staples. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, its highest since November 2022, rising 1.5% from August, led by cereals, sugar and vegetable oils. Wheat prices have risen more than 30% in 2026, Asian rice export prices are up 10% to 13%, and freight rates on some key routes have climbed about 50%. The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) forecasts UK annual food and non-alcoholic drink inflation of 3.9% in December 2026, averaging 5.5% in 2027 and peaking at 6.4% in July, while the IGD projects 5.6% to 6.6% for 2027. Official ONS figures show UK food inflation of just 1.3% in August 2026, and the FDF says outcomes could differ depending on household spending, competition, and developments in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine or extreme weather.
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