GE Vernova fell about 11% on Oct. 22 and traded near $825, about 30% below its $1,174.86 close on June 30, even as its backlog grew to $176 billion after the second quarter. The author expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to keep rising toward management's 20% target for 2028, and projects adjusted EBITDA of about $13.6 billion in 2030. Assuming the stock trades at about 19 times that EBITDA and the share count falls about 2% a year, the author estimates a value of around $1,100 a share by late 2030. That implies about a 7% annual gain, which the author considers modest for a growth stock that can fall 11% in a day. The author says he would be more interested if the price fell below about $740, where the same forecast would mean about 10% a year.
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