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IEA Says Diesel Stock Recovery Unlikely Before Second Half of 2027

The IEA expects diesel stock recovery to take until at least the second half of 2027, with a fourth-quarter gasoil shortfall still forecast. Global diesel exports in September were 700,000 barrels per day below a year earlier, as combined net exports from the Middle East and Russia fell 1.3 million barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day, only partly offset by higher shipments from the United States and China adding 610,000 barrels per day. OECD gasoil stocks stood at 565 million barrels in July, 5% below pre-conflict levels and the lowest since November 2023. The agency said expensive diesel is raising goods costs and reducing household purchasing power, and forecasts global oil demand will fall by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, with diesel accounting for one-quarter of the decline. Separately, the U.S. Department of Energy plans to offer up to $150 million under the Defense Production Act for domestic petroleum production and refinery logistics, while the EIA reported an average on-highway diesel price of $6.276 per gallon for the week of Oct. 19.

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