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IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

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PLX

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MarketVietnam stocks
ExchangeHOSE
SectorOil & Gas
IndustryIntegrated Oil & Gas
Market cap44,661 bn VND
P/E13.9
P/B1.84
Close on 10/16/202635.05
Change that session-1.41%
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PetroVietNam

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MarketVietnam stocks
ExchangeHOSE
SectorOil & Gas
IndustryOil Equipment & Services
Market cap16,421 bn VND
P/E14.8
P/B0.95
Close on 10/16/202617.65
Change that session-0.28%
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  • IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tight diesel supplies could persist well into 2027, as record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Middle East and Russian diesel exports fell by a combined 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5 percent of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins surged to a record of almost $95 per barrel that month as reduced refining capacity cut output. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released, and its governing board meets Thursday to decide details. The agency expects a surplus to return in 2027 but warned that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail the recovery.

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    Even as crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz recover, the global diesel shortage persists because refinery output in the Middle East and Russia remains constrained and other suppliers cannot fully offset the loss. Diesel prices hit records in mid-September, and the G7's promised release of 100 million barrels offers no easy fix. The IEA expects the crunch to extend into mid-2027, as gasoil supply falls short of demand and inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Global diesel exports fell 700,000 bpd in September from a year earlier, and diesel accounts for 25% of the expected 2.6 million bpd drop in global oil demand this year. Diesel prices have eased from September's peak above $200 a barrel but remain nearly double crude prices.

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  • Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite

    The IEA warns that record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and weigh on growth, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia could keep global markets short into next year. In September, the Middle East and Russia lost a combined 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins hit record highs near $95 per barrel in September, while inventories continue to be drawn down. The agency expects the market to return to surplus around 2027, but warns that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail recovery. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels yet to be released.

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  • IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

    The IEA warned that record diesel prices are weighing on inflation and economic growth, and that supply shortages could persist into 2027. In September, the Middle East and Russia together lost 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, equal to about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Inventories keep falling, and the late-year refinery recovery will not fully offset the deficit, with the gasoil market expected to be in deficit in Q3 and Q4 2026 before returning to surplus in Q1 2027. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September. By the end of September, 331 million barrels of emergency stocks had been released, with about 100 million still to go, and the agency warned that attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tankers could derail the recovery.

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