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IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

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  • IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

    The IEA warned that record diesel prices are weighing on inflation and economic growth, and that supply shortages could persist into 2027. In September, the Middle East and Russia together lost 1.3 million barrels per day of diesel exports, equal to about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Inventories keep falling, and the late-year refinery recovery will not fully offset the deficit, with the gasoil market expected to be in deficit in Q3 and Q4 2026 before returning to surplus in Q1 2027. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September. By the end of September, 331 million barrels of emergency stocks had been released, with about 100 million still to go, and the agency warned that attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tankers could derail the recovery.

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  • IEA warns tight diesel supplies could stretch well into 2027

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that tight diesel supplies could persist well into 2027, as record diesel prices threaten to fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Middle East and Russian diesel exports fell by a combined 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5 percent of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins surged to a record of almost $95 per barrel that month as reduced refining capacity cut output. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released, and its governing board meets Thursday to decide details. The agency expects a surplus to return in 2027 but warned that recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tanker traffic could derail the recovery.

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  • Diesel crunch could persist into 2027 as supply disruptions bite

    The International Energy Agency says record diesel prices are threatening to fuel inflation and weigh on growth, as supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia cut their combined diesel exports by 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5% of forecast global diesel and gasoil demand this year. Diesel refining margins hit a record of almost $95 per barrel in September as refining capacity was reduced. The IEA expects the gasoil market to be in deficit in the third and fourth quarters and to stay tight through the first half of 2027 before easing. IEA members have pledged 426 million barrels from emergency reserves, with about 100 million barrels still to be released. The agency warns oil markets may face more turmoil unless conflicts in the Middle East are resolved.

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