News about India

The Indian rupee rose 22 paise to 94.75 per US dollar on Monday as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention supported the currency despite high crude prices. The currency is hovering near 95 per dollar, which experts see as the RBI's soft defence line, after its best weekly performance in nearly four years. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold Rs 54,636 crore through October 16, though they turned marginal buyers in recent days, with experts citing a drop in the US 10-year yield to 5.08%. Brent crude briefly topped $110 a barrel on Friday before easing to around $108, after Trump waived new Russia sanctions that could boost Russian fuel exports.

The rupee gained 9 paise to 94.80 against the dollar in early trade, extending its recovery to a third straight session after closing at 94.89 on Friday. Traders said it was the sharpest rally in seven months, but high crude prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields and steady foreign outflows have kept pressure on, prompting the RBI to step up interventions. Brent fell 1.88% to $107.79 per barrel after surging to $110, amid attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and threats to Saudi energy infrastructure. The Sensex dropped 470.50 points to 74,318, while foreign institutional investors bought a net Rs 1,165.92 crore of equities on Friday. India's forex reserves fell $8.578 billion to $726.027 billion in the week ended October 9, after a $12.952 billion decline the previous week.

The rupee gained 9 paise to 94.80 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday, October 19, 2026, supported by the Reserve Bank of India's structural forex interventions. Forex traders said it was the rupee's sharpest rally in seven months, but a surge in Brent crude to $110 per barrel remains the biggest threat to the recovery. High crude prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields and steady foreign capital outflows have pushed the RBI to step up its market interventions. The Sensex fell 470.50 points to 74,318, while foreign institutional investors bought a net ₹1,165.92 crore of equities on Friday. India's forex reserves dropped $8.578 billion to $726.027 billion in the week ended October 9.

The rupee gained 9 paise to 94.80 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday, supported by the Reserve Bank of India's structural forex interventions, with forex traders calling it the sharpest rally in seven months. The biggest threat is Brent crude, which has surged near USD 110 a barrel and was trading at USD 107.79 after a 1.88 per cent drop amid attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. High crude prices, rising US Treasury yields and steady foreign capital outflows have pushed the RBI to step up intervention. Domestically, the Sensex fell 470.50 points to 74,318 and the Nifty dropped 147.10 points to 22,999.05, while FIIs bought equities worth Rs 1,165.92 crore on Friday. India's forex reserves fell USD 8.578 billion to USD 726.027 billion in the week ended October 9.

HSBC Mutual Fund said foreign outflows and rising global bond yields are likely to remain key headwinds for Indian markets, while corporate earnings growth is expected to drive equity returns in the near term. The Nifty 50 fell 6 per cent in September, with the Nifty Midcap 150 down 7.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 down 3.1 per cent; IT and auto were the worst-performing sectors, falling 11 per cent and 9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought a net USD 8.1 billion. The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50 per cent on October 7, and HSBC expects a further rise to 6 per cent if inflation worsens or global rates stay elevated. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13 per cent below its five-year average valuation.

The BSE Sensex opened at 74,594.65, down 134.62 points (0.18%), and the NSE Nifty 50 at 23,096.85, down 49.30 points (0.21%), after last week's rally delivered the strongest weekly performance in about six months. Investors are watching September-quarter results from HDFC Bank, which narrowly missed estimates on weaker treasury income and higher bad-loan provisions, and ICICI Bank, which beat expectations on loan growth and lower provisions. Brent crude is trading near $108 a barrel, after easing from $110 on Friday, keeping pressure on sentiment. Foreign investors turned net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹11.66 billion ($122.79 million) after 15 consecutive sessions of selling, while domestic institutions were net sellers of ₹36.61 billion. Analyst Hariselvan Radhakrishnan of HST Wealth said a positive reaction to private banks could help the market absorb higher oil prices, with Nifty facing immediate resistance at 23,150.

HSBC Mutual Fund said Indian equities saw a broad-based correction in September amid higher crude prices, Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy in major economies. The Nifty 50 fell 6%, the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 7.1% and the Nifty Smallcap 250 fell 3.1%. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought USD 8.1 billion. The fund expects corporate earnings to drive returns but flags higher global bond yields and commodity prices as risks, and sees the RBI's repo rate, raised to 5.50% on October 7, possibly reaching 6% if inflation worsens. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13% below its five-year average valuation.

Gold prices in Delhi were unchanged on October 19 from October 18, at ₹14,781 per gram for 24K, ₹13,550 for 22K and ₹11,089 for 18K, but still below their October 12 levels. On the MCX, December gold futures fell 2.4% over the past week to about 1.47 lakh per 10 grams, while silver dropped 6.4% to 2.11 lakh per kg. The per-gram price may differ from the final jewellery bill, which can include GST and making charges. Gold prices in Delhi are influenced by international bullion rates, currency exchange movements and local demand.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said excess liquidity and easy exits have contributed to the underperformance of India's equity market and may continue to do so, though she described the economy's fundamentals as “fine.” Benchmark indexes have fallen nearly 12% since January, and foreign portfolio investors have sold over $33 billion of direct Indian equities this year. Goldman Sachs data show India's weighting in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index has dropped from 19% a few years ago to 10%, while Taiwan (29%) and Korea (22%) have attracted flows tied to AI. Sitharaman said India would not be hurt if the AI bubble bursts, that the country is “no longer a laggard” in frontier tech, and that investment is going into semiconductor manufacturing.

State-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) have excluded ethanol made from sugarcane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses from their tender for the 2026-27 supply year, seeking to preserve domestic sugar supplies amid poor rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka. The tender, issued by BPCL on October 16, seeks about 11 billion litres of ethanol for November 2026 to October 2027 to support 20% ethanol blending in petrol. The procurement price for maize-based ethanol has been lowered to 68.86 rupees per litre from 71.86, and its incentive cut to 2.79 rupees from 5.79 rupees per litre. The shift is likely to raise the role of grain-based ethanol and C-heavy molasses, but the lower maize incentive could affect producer returns.

PGIM India Mutual Fund expects the MPC to begin rate hikes in October, with a total of 50-75 bps by the end of FY2027, and sees the 10-year bond yield trading between 6.95% and 7.25% in the near term. The 10-year yield closed the week at 7.06%, up 2 bps, while the 5-year yield rose 15 bps as the RBI conducted INR 50,000 crore of OMO. Brent crude spiked above USD 109/bbl intra-week before ending at USD 103.87/bbl, and the RBI continued FX intervention as outflows from debt and equity persisted. The trade deficit narrowed to USD 27 billion in August from USD 32 billion in July, while the current account deficit is expected near 1% in FY2027 depending on crude prices. CPI inflation is expected at 5.50% next month, with a risk of broad-based price rises if crude stays above USD 100/bbl.

Puneet Pal of PGIM India Mutual Fund expects yields to keep trending higher as the RBI starts monetary tightening from its June policy meeting, with policy rates possibly rising 50-75 bps by the end of 2026. Money market yields up to one year, near 8%, are viewed as attractive for short-term investors. During the week, government bond yields rose 3-6 bps as the INR hit a record low of 96.83/USD and the RBI announced a USD 5bn buy/sell swap. Analysts expect the balance of payments deficit to be around USD 50bn, so measures to attract dollar inflows may soon follow, though he sees no comparison with 2013 since inflation is below 4%.

The Nifty snapped an eight-week decline to close marginally higher, but still formed a fresh 52-week low, as the RBI raised rates by 25 basis points and shifted to “calibrated tightening”. Brent crude above $100, higher US bond yields and a weaker rupee kept sentiment under pressure, with FIIs net sellers for an eighth straight week (Rs. 302.94bn) while DIIs bought Rs. 303.13bn to absorb the selling. The index closed the week at 22,520.45, up 0.4%, though it is down 0.44% month-to-date. The analysis expects volatility to persist amid FII selling and global headwinds, with strong domestic buying limiting downside. Investors will watch US and Indian inflation data, US bond yields, Brent prices and US-Iran tensions next week.

Nifty fell 383 points to close at 23,063, its lowest since 6 April 2026 and its biggest one-session percentage drop since 8 July 2026, after a 225-point gap-down opening. PB Fintech (down 36%), Turtle mint (down 20%) and MFSL (down 10%) slumped after IRDAI issued a consultation paper proposing sweeping changes to insurance distribution. Nifty Midcap 100, Smallcap 100 and Microcap fell 2.25%, 1.53% and 1.48%, while the BSE advance-decline ratio dropped to 0.51. The rupee lost 21 paise to close at 95.95. Technically, the index broke below the 23,100-23,600 consolidation zone, with support seen near 22,700 and resistance at 23,300.

According to a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report, gold prices have risen nearly 10% so far in 2026, though prices swung sharply through the first quarter. Geopolitical tensions, slowing growth and uncertainty over US interest rates support gold's safe-haven appeal, while a stronger dollar and elevated bond yields have caused intermittent pressure. In India, high prices have subdued price-sensitive jewellery demand and pushed domestic prices to a discount, while China has seen stronger investment-led buying and Indian investors are gradually shifting toward ETFs. Citing World Gold Council data, central banks bought around 860-870 tonnes in 2025, a slower pace than in previous years, and global ETF demand has recovered. The report expects gold to trade within a broad range in the near term, with a constructive medium- to long-term outlook and a 'buy on dips' stance for investors with medium- to long-term horizons.

ICICI Bank (NYSE:IBN) reported profit before tax of INR 199.5 billion, up 23.4% year over year excluding treasury results, and consolidated profit after tax of INR 163.3 billion, up 22.3%. Total deposits rose 27.1% and loans grew 30%, helped by USD 18 billion in FCNR (B) deposits mobilized under a one-off regulatory opportunity. Net interest margin fell to 4.18% from 4.36% in the previous quarter, which management attributed to a higher share of overseas branch assets and a sharp rise in retail term deposits. The net NPA ratio improved to 0.30% from 0.35% in June, and CET1 stood at 16.01%. Management said the full margin impact would show in the third quarter, with a recovery expected in the fourth, while ICICI General's combined ratio rose to 107% from 105.1%.

Bandhan Financial Services (BFSL) will explore health insurance opportunities once its recent acquisitions of IDFC Mutual Fund, IDFC Asset Management Company and Aegon Life Insurance stabilise, chairman Chandra Sekhar Ghosh told PTI. He said the immediate focus is consolidating existing businesses and did not give a timeline for entering health insurance. Ghosh said a composite licence would make it easier to enter the sector, which current Indian insurance law does not permit. The group is also looking at investment banking and wealth management, where it has no presence.

ICICI Bank reported Q2 profit before tax of INR 199.5 billion, up 23.4% year over year excluding treasury results. The bank mobilised USD 18 billion in FCNR(B) deposits under a one-off regulatory opportunity, lifting total deposits 27.1% year over year, but its net interest margin fell to 4.18% from 4.36% in the previous quarter as overseas assets grew. Loans rose 30% year over year, with domestic corporate lending up 30.6% and retail and rural lending up 14.8%. The net NPA ratio improved to 0.30% from 0.35% a quarter earlier, and consolidated profit after tax reached INR 163.3 billion, up 22.3%. Management expects the full margin impact to show in the third quarter, before a recovery in the fourth.

FMCG companies face sustained margin pressure in the second half of the fiscal year as input costs rise, and firms are weighing post-Diwali price hikes against the risk of hurting demand in mass-market and rural categories. Grant Thornton Bharat's Naveen Malpani said palm oil prices in rupee terms were about 21% higher year over year in September, and sugar about 18% higher despite an 8% monthly correction. Pre-results analyst estimates projected operating-margin compression of about 45 basis points across major consumer staples companies, with some estimates up to 150 basis points. Parle Products' Mayank Shah said companies were absorbing costs through efficiencies, fewer discounts and lower advertising, with price increases possibly coming after the festive season. Nestle India expects sugar and edible oils to stay elevated in the December quarter, while El Niño and an uneven monsoon add uncertainty for food prices and rural demand.

SBI Funds Management says the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to raise its repo rate to at least 6.25% to contain inflation risks, after the RBI lifted it by 25 basis points to 5.50% earlier this month. That level would imply another 75 basis points of increases, though the report gives no timeline. Retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, while wholesale inflation climbed to 11.39% from 9.92%. The fund house says headline CPI remains about 120 basis points above the 4% target, and warns that high crude prices, possible food inflation and strong domestic demand could push inflation above the RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit for two consecutive quarters. It also notes that surplus banking liquidity could weaken the effect of rate hikes, and that rate cuts are off the table.

In its October 2026 Market Outlook, SBI Funds Management says the RBI may need to lift its repo rate to at least 6.25% to contain inflation risks, after raising it by 25 basis points to 5.50% earlier this month. That implies another 75 basis points of hikes with no timeline given, and the fund sees the near-term path as either a hike or a hold, with rate cuts off the table. Retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August and wholesale inflation to 11.39% from 9.92%, while the FY27 CPI forecast of 5.20% sits about 120 basis points above the 4% target. The RBI projects inflation at 6% in the third quarter and 5.7% in the fourth quarter of FY27, and the fund warns that elevated crude prices, food inflation and strong domestic demand could push it above the 6% upper tolerance limit for two consecutive quarters. It also cautions that surplus banking liquidity could weaken the effect of rate hikes, and the RBI's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 2-4.

India’s food regulator FSSAI has issued notices to Nestlé India and Hindustan Unilever (HUL) over misleading claims on some product packaging. For Nestlé’s Resource Renal Vanilla Flavour Powder, FSSAI said the company neither obtained prior approval nor stated whether the product was vegetarian, and claims such as “Nutrition for Strong Bones” were found misleading or non-compliant. For HUL, the regulator flagged “happy birth weight” on Horlicks Mother’s Plus Kesar 400 g, along with “improves bone health,” “healthy muscles” and “no added sugar” on Horlicks Women’s Plus products. HUL said its two products comply with all applicable requirements and that it will share “scientific and regulatory evidence” with the authorities, while Nestlé did not immediately respond. The regulator had also initiated legal action against Nestlé India in September over infant nutrition marketing rules.

Ashok Chandra, MD and CEO of Punjab National Bank (PNB), told BusinessLine that credit growth this quarter could add up to 2 percentage points to overall growth, with retail, agri and MSME lending expected to rise by at least 1–2% more. The bank used its entire FCNR(B) deposit pool, about $2.7 billion, to repay high-cost bulk deposits and certificates of deposit, lifting domestic NIM by 10 basis points and global NIM by 8 basis points in one quarter. He expects overall credit growth of 14–15% this quarter, with MSME growth of 21–22% and agri growth of 18–19%. Loan rates are repriced the next working day after any change, with about 7 basis points of benefit expected from the recent repo hike, while deposit rates are expected to stay elevated for now. PNB plans to raise around $1 billion via MTN and has board approval for about ₹10,000 crore of infrastructure bonds, with timing dependent on market conditions.

The Jio Platforms IPO, worth Rs 30,213 crore, opens for subscription on October 21 and closes October 23 at a price band of Rs 1,065 to Rs 1,119 per share, and at the upper end would be India's largest IPO to date. The issue consists entirely of fresh shares, with up to Rs 27,500 crore earmarked for repaying borrowings of Reliance Jio Infocomm. Investors will also watch September-quarter earnings from banks such as ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank, along with crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows and the rupee. The Nifty 50 rose 2.8% to 23,146.15 and the Sensex gained 3.1% to 74,729.27 on October 16, as Indian equities posted their strongest weekly performance in six months, led by IT stocks. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee minutes are scheduled for October 21.

The Russian tank industry has entered a new phase, with customers increasingly demanding production technology rather than finished vehicles, according to Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) CEO Alexander Potapov. UVZ is willing to support this trend despite concerns that customers could eventually become competitors, especially India's localization demands under 'Make in India' and similar interest from Arab buyers. Because traditional markets have shrunk considerably, UVZ is turning to Africa and Southeast Asia, while continuing negotiations and improving after-sales service. UVZ tanks have been exported to dozens of countries, with India being the most prominent customer, operating about 1,000 T-72M1 and T-90S tanks.

The article argues that India's economy is caught between strong macro indicators and mounting pressures. GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY27, GST collections rose 14.7% year on year in September 2026 to Rs 2.04 lakh crore, and UPI transactions reached 2,407 crore. However, the monsoon is 12.6% below its long-period average, CPI inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, and India's crude purchase cost reportedly touched $110 per barrel. The Sensex has fallen about 11.89% over 12 months, FIIs sold over Rs 3.04 lakh crore in equities through October 2026, and per capita income is around $2,800. The author questions whether the boom is reaching ordinary households.