Anthropic filed its S-1 registration statement on Oct. 26, setting up a possible IPO before Thanksgiving with a valuation that could exceed SpaceX's, which raised $85.7 billion. The author argues that Anthropic's prospectus lists 23 earnings- and time-based lockup events for insiders, including one on the first trading day after the prospectus, far faster than the typical 180-day lockup. Citing Truist research on 30 prominent tech IPOs since May 2012, the author notes that just 43% had risen 12 months after debut and the average year-one maximum drawdown was 55%. SpaceX itself fell 54% from peak to trough after its IPO. The piece argues that retail investor enthusiasm for IPOs tends to fade quickly.
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