India bonds give up day gains as oil price spike adds to rate hike fears

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• Oil , foreign flows in focus for rupee ; bond traders eye rate - hike bets

  The Indian rupee is expected to hold steady in a holiday-shortened week, with oil prices and foreign portfolio flows in focus. Last week it gained 2%, its best week since March, closing at 94.96 on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India rolled out measures to support the currency. Traders see the rupee trading between 94–95.50 in the near term. Indian government bonds may face mild selling as fears of a bigger rate hike grow, with the 10-year yield, which ended at 7.3789% after a ninth straight weekly rise, expected to move between 7.32% and 7.42%. Following hawkish comments from Governor Sanjay Malhotra, calls for a 50-bps rate hike in December have increased.

  kitco.com·19/10, 12:45oil pricescapital flowsbonds
• Domestic Yields Rise While Long - End Finds Support Amid Global Volatility

  PGIM India Mutual Fund expects the MPC to begin rate hikes in October, with a total of 50-75 bps by the end of FY2027, and sees the 10-year bond yield trading between 6.95% and 7.25% in the near term. The 10-year yield closed the week at 7.06%, up 2 bps, while the 5-year yield rose 15 bps as the RBI conducted INR 50,000 crore of OMO. Brent crude spiked above USD 109/bbl intra-week before ending at USD 103.87/bbl, and the RBI continued FX intervention as outflows from debt and equity persisted. The trade deficit narrowed to USD 27 billion in August from USD 32 billion in July, while the current account deficit is expected near 1% in FY2027 depending on crude prices. CPI inflation is expected at 5.50% next month, with a risk of broad-based price rises if crude stays above USD 100/bbl.

  equitybulls.com·18/10, 16:45bondsinterest ratesoil prices
• Indian Bond Yield Falls as U . S . Treasury Rates Ease After Nine - Week Climb

  India's benchmark bond yield fell Monday after nine weeks of gains, as lower U.S. Treasury yields prompted value buying; the 6.94% bond due 2036 stood at 7.3551%, versus 7.3789% at Friday's close. The benchmark yield had risen 62 basis points over the previous nine weeks, while faster domestic inflation complicated the outlook, with India's combined CPI up 5.54% year over year in September (provisional) after 4.83% in August. The RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Oct. 7 and ruled out a near-term cut, saying its next move could be a hike or a pause. Indian overnight index swap rates fell, with the one-year down 7 basis points to 6.48% and the two-year down 8 basis points to 6.54%, while Brent crude fell 2.08% to $107.57 a barrel. The RBI's policy minutes are due Oct. 21, October inflation data on Nov. 12, and the next policy meeting is set for Dec. 2–4.

  econotimes.com·19/10, 12:30▼ DXY▲ XAU/USDbondsinterest ratesinflation
• Expect 10yr benchmark bond yield to trade in a range of 6.90% to 7.25% over the course of the next one month

  Puneet Pal of PGIM India Mutual Fund expects yields to keep trending higher as the RBI starts monetary tightening from its June policy meeting, with policy rates possibly rising 50-75 bps by the end of 2026. Money market yields up to one year, near 8%, are viewed as attractive for short-term investors. During the week, government bond yields rose 3-6 bps as the INR hit a record low of 96.83/USD and the RBI announced a USD 5bn buy/sell swap. Analysts expect the balance of payments deficit to be around USD 50bn, so measures to attract dollar inflows may soon follow, though he sees no comparison with 2013 since inflation is below 4%.

  equitybulls.com·18/10, 16:45bondsinterest ratesexchange rates
• Foreign outflows , rising yields weigh on Indian markets ; earnings to drive recovery : HSBC

  HSBC Mutual Fund said Indian equities suffered a broad-based correction in September, driven by rising crude oil prices, Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy in major economies. The Nifty 50 fell 6 per cent, the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 7.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 declined 3.1 per cent, with IT and automobile stocks the worst performers at 11 per cent and 9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors pulled out USD 4.1 billion in September, bringing their 2026 total selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions were net buyers of USD 8.1 billion. HSBC expects corporate earnings to drive returns but flags higher global bond yields and commodity prices as risks, while the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50 per cent on October 7 and could lift it to 6 per cent if inflation worsens. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13 per cent below its five-year average valuation.

  bignewsnetwork.com·19/10, 03:45Indiaforeign investorsinterest rates
• Bajaj Broking Weekly FII and DII Commentary for 10th October 2026

  The Nifty snapped an eight-week decline to close marginally higher, but still formed a fresh 52-week low, as the RBI raised rates by 25 basis points and shifted to “calibrated tightening”. Brent crude above $100, higher US bond yields and a weaker rupee kept sentiment under pressure, with FIIs net sellers for an eighth straight week (Rs. 302.94bn) while DIIs bought Rs. 303.13bn to absorb the selling. The index closed the week at 22,520.45, up 0.4%, though it is down 0.44% month-to-date. The analysis expects volatility to persist amid FII selling and global headwinds, with strong domestic buying limiting downside. Investors will watch US and Indian inflation data, US bond yields, Brent prices and US-Iran tensions next week.

  equitybulls.com·18/10, 16:45foreign investorscapital flowsIndia

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