JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report includes its first return forecast for Bitcoin, with a base case of 10% annualized over 10 to 15 years, a bear case of -11.2% and a bull case of about 16.5%. In the base case, $100 invested in Bitcoin would grow to $259 in 10 years, versus $206 for large-cap stocks; JPMorgan's forecasts for U.S. large caps, gold and REITs are 7.5%, 5.5% and 8.2% a year. The bank notes Bitcoin is not included as an allocation, assumes 55% annualized volatility versus 18% for U.S. large caps and 17.2% for gold, and sees unstable correlations with other assets. The author says a small position may suit investors with high risk tolerance and suggests limiting it to about 5% of a portfolio, noting the bear case leaves roughly 30% of the money after 10 years. As of Oct. 26, Bitcoin was trading about 36% below its all-time high set in October 2025.
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Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
▲ Likely positiveBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 80,150.56 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
XAU/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 4,017.27 |
| Change that session | +0.54% |
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