Liquidity Plunges as Money Exits Retail, Oil & Gas and Securities Stocks

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• Stock market awaits boost from trading infrastructure

  SGI Capital says Vietnam's macro picture after the first three quarters of 2026 still shows bright spots, but the stock market enters the fourth quarter facing two risks: policy pressure and liquidity risk from margin leverage. After the FTSE upgrade, trading liquidity fell below VND 15,000 billion per session and foreign investors turned to heavy net selling, driven by fears of rising global inflation and interest rates. Margin debt at a historically high level is seen as a risk that could trigger forced-sale pressure as cash demand rises in the fourth quarter. Longer term, Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16/11/2026, introduces CCP clearing and removes the 100% cash pre-funding (NPF) requirement for foreign institutional investors, which Hàn Hữu Hậu, CEO of Hy Maxpro, called an important upgrade.

  CafeF·19/10, 06:58▲ VNINDEXVNINDEXforeign investorsliquidity
• Why are securities stocks lagging despite high expectations?

  Securities stocks have remained weak despite expectations of gains from FTSE Russell's market upgrade and capital market development. According to VietstockFinance, as of 09/10/2026 the sector index was down 23.46% year-to-date, much deeper than the 2.77% decline of VN-Index, and had lost 39.92% over the past year. About 80% of the 43 sector stocks were more than 20% below their recent peaks, a threshold commonly used to define a bear market. Võ Kim Phụng of Chứng khoán Beta said the sector's earnings depend on liquidity, margin lending and interest rates, and that expected gains were priced in earlier; in Q3/2026, average daily trading value on HOSE and HNX fell 58% year-on-year.

  Vietstock·19/10, 06:02▼ VNINDEXVNINDEXbrokeragesliquidity
• Derivatives market, week 19-23/10/2026: Overall market liquidity down nearly 30%Vietstock·17/10, 13:00▼ VNINDEXVNINDEXderivativesliquidity
• VN-Index Falls for 4 Weeks: Where Is Cash Flow Finding Opportunities?

  VN-Index fell 29.18 points (1.68%) in the October 12-16 week to 1,705.91, its fourth straight weekly decline and down 4.4% year to date. Liquidity weakened, with average market trading value down 27.3% to VND 14,576 billion, while foreign investors net sold VND 3,141 billion in the week and VND 115,503 billion year to date. MBS flagged the 1,650-point zone, the July 2026 bottom, as a key support level to watch for the October 19-23 week. The report cited Q3 GDP growth of 9.95% and Brent crude closing the week at USD 109.86 per barrel, and MBS noted October has the weakest performance of the year. Experts advise choosing stocks based on business results rather than chasing sector rotations.

  CafeF·19/10, 07:00▼ VNINDEXVNINDEXcapital flowsVietnam
• Expert view: VN-Index still at risk of decline, three stock groups expected to attract cash flow after Q3 earnings season

  Analysts from Pinetree and Kafi say VN-Index has not yet confirmed a bottom, though it regained 1,700 points on Friday after a fourth straight weekly decline. Pressures include high interest rates, 9-month average CPI of 4.52%, possible Fed rate hikes, and foreign net selling of over VND 3,000 billion on HoSE last week. Pinetree sees a technical rebound with resistance at 1,715–1,750 points, while Kafi warns of a possible retest of 1,650–1,670 if 1,680 is lost. Q3 earnings, due by October 20, are expected to drive sharper divergence among stock groups. The experts advise limiting margin loans, avoiding chasing rallies, and favoring stocks with strong Q3 prospects.

  CafeF·18/10, 09:55▼ VNINDEXVNINDEXearningscapital flows
• Foreign investors may stop net selling Vietnamese stocks from mid-2027

  Experts expect foreign investors to struggle to return to net buying this year but see a possible reversal from mid-2027 as index-upgrade inflows rise and selling room shrinks. Foreigners have sold net for 18 straight sessions on HCMC, over VND 24,000 billion, the longest streak in two years, and bought net only one session since the FTSE Russell upgrade. Year to date net outflows total VND 118,000 billion (US$4.6 billion), and the index briefly fell below 1,700 points. Analysts blame capital shifting to US, Japanese and Chinese tech stocks, high global rates, and active funds taking profits after passive funds had already invested. Foreign ownership on HCMC has dropped from 20.6% at end-2024 to 12.5%, while the upgrade could draw US$2.5–3 billion in passive inflows, of which only about 10% has been deployed.

  VnExpress·18/10, 00:34▲ VNINDEXforeign investorsVNINDEXcapital flows

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  Saudi Arabia has postponed its major annual investor conference until 2027 as Iran-backed Houthi militants escalate missile and drone attacks on the kingdom. The Future Investment Initiative had been scheduled for Riyadh from October 26 to 29. The decision follows a Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on October 10, which left at least 12 people dead and more than 300 injured. Organizers said in an email that new dates will be announced soon.

  CNBC·19/10, 15:24▲ XAU/USDSaudi ArabiaHouthigeopolitics
• Russia fires mysterious weapon at Kyiv, shockwaves spread; President Putin appears in rare image, drawing global attention

  On the night of 18 Oct, Russia launched a coordinated strike on multiple Ukrainian targets using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Geran UAVs, focused on Kyiv. According to TST, around 10 ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M, S-400 or KN-23 types may have been used in the first wave; an above-ground metro station on Kyiv's left bank was reported damaged, disrupting rail and metro services, and videos of blue flashes led observers to suspect a new weapon. In western Ukraine, a 330 kV transformer station near Kovel may have been targeted. Meanwhile, Putin, who rarely appears in military uniform, visited a command post and stressed establishing a “security zone” along the border; blogger Yuri Podolyaka argued Moscow no longer treats these areas as bargaining chips. Front-line correspondent Alexander Kots said the part of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine is just over 2,700 km².

  CafeF·19/10, 15:22▲ XAU/USDUkraineRussiageopolitics
• Semiconductor Sell-Off: 5 Stocks to Buy on the Dip

  The article attributes the semiconductor selloff to investor doubts about the durability of AI infrastructure spending, even as cloud companies report strong demand for AI chips. It highlights five stocks: Nvidia (forward P/E just above 13.5 on fiscal 2028 estimates), Broadcom (custom AI chips, with that revenue expected to quadruple to $230 billion over two years; forward P/E of 11), AMD (riding inference and agentic AI demand), Cerebras Systems (high risk-reward; the company claims 30 times the inference speed of GPUs) and TSMC (forward P/E of 18 on 2027 estimates).

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 15:20▼ NVDAsemiconductorsAI investmentNVDA
• Tom Lee’s Bitmine Adds $30 Million in Ethereum as Buying Nears Its Finish Line

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  Decrypt·19/10, 15:13▲ ETH/USDTcryptoETHUSDTBitmine
• Opinion: The Most Important Number in Taiwan Semiconductor's Earnings Report Was 68%

  The author argues the most important figure in TSMC's Q3 report is 68%, the share of revenue from high-performance computing (HPC), which grew 22% from the prior quarter. Revenue reached $46.72 billion, up 41.2% year over year, net income rose 68.7%, and gross margin hit 66.4%. Processes at 7nm and below made up 79% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 33% and 2nm at 8%. TSMC guided Q4 revenue to $52.3–54.3 billion and expects roughly 44% full-year growth in U.S. dollars. The author remains bullish, saying ongoing demand for advanced AI chips should keep profits rising.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 15:05• NVDATSMCsemiconductorsearnings
• Why Meta's Q3 earnings could be a little hard to interpret

  Meta is reporting its third-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, and Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi says the report will be hard to interpret. Recent good news on Meta's AI products, including new models and an AI agent, may not appear directly in the results but will likely be discussed on the earnings call. The key uncertainty is how investors will react if Meta raises its capex outlook again: it could be seen as fueling those products, or as overspending on offerings not yet reflected in financials. Sozzi expects the market to give Meta the benefit of the doubt on higher capex, as long as the increase does not shock investors.

  Yahoo Finance·19/10, 15:00• METAearningsMETAartificial intelligence