Housing economists at the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders describe mortgage rates above 7% as the 'new normal', and major forecasts see rates staying above 7% into 2027. Fannie Mae projects average rates of 7.5% in 2027, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to remain above 7%. Drivers include inflation that has not been below the Fed's 2% target since February 2021, heavy federal borrowing, AI-related investment competing for capital, and weaker bank demand for mortgage bonds. Reaching about 6% would likely require lower inflation and Treasury yields, and Selma Hepp of Cotality says returning to the 3% and 4% mortgages of the past is unlikely.
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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
▼ Likely negativeSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 759.97 |
| Change that session | -0.52% |
XAU/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Gold |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 3,995.78 |
| Change that session | -0.72% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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