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Original headline: Mortgage rates forecast - will fixed deals fall by Christmas ?
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GBP/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 1.33040 |
| Change that session | -0.20% |
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- Mortgage rates forecast : Will fixed deals fall by Christmas ?
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The article lists five signs that the U.S. housing market will stay deeply frozen. Pending home sales fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% year over year in September, according to the NAR, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from about 6.8% to 7.6% during the month. Foreclosure filings reached 40,277 in August, up 13% from a year earlier, while housing starts fell 4.56% to an annualized 859,000 in September. Homebuilder sentiment dropped to 29 in October, its lowest since June 2012, and economist Jim Paulsen warns his “Walmart Recession Signal” is peaking, as it did before past recessions.
- Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikes
The U.S. housing market weakened further in September even as price pressures persisted, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions on whether to raise interest rates. The 30-year mortgage rate was above 7% for most of September and ended the month around 7.6%, and could rise further if the Fed hikes short-term rates as expected. The National Association of Realtors' pending sales index fell 7.3% for the month and was 11.3% lower than a year earlier, an all-time low in records dating to 2001. Privately owned housing starts dropped 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, far worse than the expected 0.4% decline, while Goldman Sachs expects affordability pressures to dominate the housing market in 2027.
- US single - family housing starts , building permits tumble in September – Taylorville Daily News
U.S. single-family housing starts fell 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 859,000 units in September, while single-family building permits dropped 4.0% to 845,000 units, according to the Census Bureau. Mortgage rates surged, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.40% last week, the highest in nearly three years, as Treasury yields rose on inflation fears tied to the US-Israeli war with Iran. The National Association of Home Builders reported that builder sentiment in October fell to its lowest level since June 2012, citing higher material costs, mortgage rates, pricier diesel, and worsening labor conditions from an immigration crackdown. Slumping sales have left a glut of unsold homes, reducing incentives for developers to start new projects, although a national housing shortage keeps home prices elevated.
- Mortgage rate warning as cheap deals disappear within days
- US Pending Home Sales Collapse To Record Lows In September
US pending home sales fell 7.3% month-over-month in September, worse than the expected 3.9% decline and reversing August's 0.3% gain, pushing the index to a record low. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun blamed fast-rising mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% per Freddie Mac for the week of October 11, up 113bps year over year. Contract signings fell in every region, most sharply in the West (-9.2% monthly), while the Northeast fell 4.2% monthly but posted the country's largest annual price gain, with its median existing-home price up 5% to $523,600. Yun thinks mortgage rates could be topping out, but uncertain energy prices add inflation risk, and Goldman Sachs expects near-term housing activity to stay under pressure.
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