Oil has traded above $100 a barrel for most of the past month, driven by the Iran war, and energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this year with a gain of more than 50%. The author argues oil is rising on supply concerns rather than demand, so energy stocks could fall sharply once the conflict ends, and is less bullish on the sector. By contrast, consumer discretionary (XLY) is the worst-performing sector this year, down 7% and trailing the S&P 500 by roughly 20 percentage points, as annualized inflation of 3.7% in September and near all-time-low consumer sentiment weigh on it. The author points to 2022, when Brent rose 35% while XLY fell 36%, and 2023, when Brent fell about 3% while XLY gained about 40%, as reasons the sector could offer long-term opportunity, while stressing this is not a prediction.
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Original headline: Oil Prices Are Back Above $100 . History Says the Biggest Stock Market Loser May Now Offer the Biggest Upside .
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oil pricesS&P 500inflationconsumer goods
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Related tickers and likely impact
PVD
▲ Likely positivePetroVietNam
Relevance: medium
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Exchange | HOSE |
| Sector | Oil & Gas |
| Industry | Oil Equipment & Services |
| Market cap | 16,375 bn VND |
| P/E | 14.7 |
| P/B | 0.95 |
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 17.65 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
PLX
▼ Likely negativePetrolimex
Relevance: low
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Exchange | HOSE |
| Sector | Oil & Gas |
| Industry | Integrated Oil & Gas |
| Market cap | 44,534 bn VND |
| P/E | 13.9 |
| P/B | 1.83 |
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 35.05 |
| Change that session | -1.41% |
PVT
▲ Likely positivePVTrans
Relevance: low
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Exchange | HOSE |
| Sector | Industrial Goods & Services |
| Industry | Marine Transportation |
| Market cap | 12,225 bn VND |
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/B | 1.29 |
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 23.65 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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Oil prices have mostly stayed above $100 a barrel due to supply concerns tied to the Iran war, and energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this year with a gain of more than 50%. The author argues energy stocks may have limited upside unless oil keeps rising, since they tend to move with oil, and believes oil is more likely to fall once the conflict is resolved, with annualized inflation at 3.7% in September. Instead, the article favors consumer discretionary stocks, the worst-performing sector this year with a 7% loss, trailing the S&P 500 by roughly 20 percentage points amid near-record-low consumer sentiment and affordability pressures. It points to 2022, when Brent crude rose 35% while the consumer discretionary ETF fell 36%, and 2023, when Brent finished about 3% lower while the sector gained around 40%, as a recent precedent for a rebound if the war ends and inflation cools. The author stresses this is not a prediction, but XLY could offer one of the better long-term opportunities for outperformance.
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