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Oil Risks and Inflation Expectations Drive Bank of Canada Hike Calls

Scotiabank Economics expects the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points on Oct. 28, as energy-driven inflation risks grow despite softer core inflation and weaker employment. Desjardins and BMO Capital Markets economists also favor a hike, and Reuters reported that Governor Tiff Macklem said the Bank expects to raise its inflation forecast. Scotiabank's call departs from its Sept. 9 outlook, which had listed an October increase only as a possibility. In an Oct. 19 note, Derek Holt wrote that the bank forecasts a 25 basis-point hike, while its Oct. 20 market snapshot implied 22 basis points of a possible 25-basis-point increase.

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