Brett Friedman of OptionMetrics says wheat, soybeans and sugar have posted sizeable 2026 gains with strong risk-adjusted returns, while copper has underwhelmed despite heavy media attention. Year to date, sugar is up 44.7%, Chicago SRW wheat 32.3% and soybeans 22.1%, while SPY and QQQ had returned 11.7% and 15.8% as of Oct. 16. Copper has returned 15.5% year to date, but those trading it as an AI proxy have been disappointed. Wheat and soybeans have moved nearly in lockstep, with a record calendar-year price correlation of 0.919, leaving minimal diversification benefit between them. Copper's average implied volatility of 29.1% this year remains above its 21-year baseline of 26.9%.
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