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Original headline: Pound to Rand Forecast : Can GBP / ZAR Break Above 22 ?
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- South African rand gains slightly as traders await budget speech , inflation data
The South African rand edged up roughly 0.2% in early Monday trade to 16.4475, as investors looked ahead to a busy week of economic data. The focus is on Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday and September inflation figures. Nedbank expects headline inflation to rise to 4.8% in September from 4.4% in August, and retail sales growth to slow to 2.5% in August from 3.4% in July, with higher transport costs from fuel prices and rand depreciation as the main pressure. The 2035 benchmark government bond was little changed, with its yield rising half a basis point to 8.7%.
- South African Rand Stays Resilient Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
- Jobless rate falls as labour market shows surprise strength
- The Pound Is Capitalising on Expectations
- Pound to Euro Nears €1.19 | Currency News United Kingdom
The pound gained about 0.3% against the euro on Monday, with GBP/EUR trading near €1.1890, as civil unrest across France weighed on the single currency. Clashes, looting and a fire that badly damaged Limoges' historic town hall add pressure on President Emmanuel Macron's government, which is struggling to secure parliamentary backing for a 2027 budget aimed at reducing France's large deficit. Concerns about French public finances and political stability have also unsettled the French bond market. Sterling made only modest gains and lacked momentum as investors awaited UK data, including Tuesday's employment report, which economists expect to show a slightly higher unemployment rate and slower wage growth. A weaker labour market could reduce expectations of further Bank of England rate rises and weigh on the pound, while the euro remains exposed to developments in France.
- ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD | Godongwana expected to trim GDP forecast
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to trim his 2026 growth forecast, which was 1.6% in the February budget, in his medium-term budget policy statement to parliament on Wednesday. The US war against Iran has hurt manufacturing and mining and pushed inflation sharply higher, and the South African Reserve Bank and the IMF have already cut their forecasts significantly. Spending for the first five months of 2026/27 reached 42% of the budget versus 41% a year earlier, while revenue of R812bn trailed the R868bn implied by the main budget, according to Investec economist Annabel Bishop. This week, Sacci releases its September business confidence index on Monday, and Stats SA publishes September consumer inflation on Wednesday, with Absa economists expecting a 0.2 percentage point rise to 4.6% on fuel prices.
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- Bitcoin ETFs just saw their biggest day in a month thanks entirely to BlackRock
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million on Monday, the largest daily net inflow in nearly a month, driven entirely by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which pulled in $665.2 million, its biggest daily inflow since Oct. 7 last year, according to SoSoValue data. Fidelity's FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale's GBTC shed $54.9 million, while the remaining funds recorded no net flows. The inflow more than erased last week's $228.5 million of withdrawals, but funds remain about $90.5 million in net outflows for October, according to CoinDesk calculations. Ether funds moved the opposite way, losing $103.3 million in their fourth consecutive session of outflows, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $95.4 million of that.
- A Big4 bank cut deposit rates in the morning, then raised them again in the afternoon
VietinBank cut its deposit rates for terms of 6 months and longer on the morning of Oct. 20, then restored them to pre-adjustment levels by the afternoon. Its afternoon rate board showed 3.5% per year for 6 to under 12 months, 5.9% for 12 to under 24 months and 6% for 24 months and longer, versus 3%, 5.4% and 5.5% in the morning. Rates for terms under 6 months stayed unchanged, including 2.1% for 1 to under 3 months and 2.4% for 3 to under 6 months. The move came as banks followed the State Bank of Vietnam's guidance to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage points for terms of 6 months and longer, and Vietcombank and Agribank were among those reducing rates.
- IVV vs. SPY: Which S&P 500 ETF Is the Better Buy for Long-Term Investors?
The article compares two ETFs that track the S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which have nearly identical holdings. The main difference is the expense ratio: IVV charges 0.03% a year, one-third of SPY's 0.09%, and its distribution yield is about 1.1% versus 1% for SPY. SPY's high liquidity remains valuable for active traders. The article concludes that IVV is the better choice for long-term investors, since lower costs can compound over time.
- Warren Buffett Is Issuing a Stark Warning About the Stock Market. Here's What History Says Comes Next.
Warren Buffett has warned that investors are taking on too much risk, likening the market to 'a church with a casino attached' and saying people have never been in a more gambling mood. The article points to the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, which has stayed above 40 since May of this year; historically, the only other time it held above that level for months was during the dot-com bubble, when it peaked around 44 before the bear market began in March 2000. The article notes that 40 is not an automatic trigger for a downturn, and no metric can predict timing. It suggests investors focus on quality stocks with solid fundamentals and be ready to hold them for at least a few years.
- Early Uber Investor Jason Calacanis Predicts Waymo Could Buy Lucid Or Rivian — Calls Its Chinese-Car Optics ‘Really Bad’
Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis predicts Waymo will buy Lucid Group (LCID) or Rivian Automotive (RIVN), arguing that its reliance on Chinese-made Zeekr vehicles creates cost and reputational problems. He says the arrangement is technically not illegal today, but Waymo would need to pay a tariff of over 100%, and it has drawn national-security concerns on Capitol Hill. According to Semafor, Waymo aims to grow its fleet from about 4,000 vehicles to 8,000 by the end of 2026 and 20,000 by the end of 2027, after closing a $5 billion term loan and a $16 billion equity raise this year. Uber has committed to buying at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles, while its Rivian deal starts with 10,000 autonomous R2 SUVs, with rides expected to begin in 2028. Calacanis, who recently bought small stakes in Lucid, Rivian, WeRide (WRD) and Pony.ai (PONY), expects consolidation in the autonomous-driving sector within 24 months.
- Prediction: Oct. 21 Will Be a Huge Day for the Stock Market
The article predicts October 21 could be a pivotal day for the stock market, as Meta Platforms (META) becomes the first of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants to report third-quarter earnings after the close. In its latest quarter, Meta's total revenue rose 28% to $60 billion, with ad revenue at $59 billion. Investors will be watching whether its capital spending, now about 35% of revenue, is translating into growth. Meta's report could hint at the earnings outlook for other tech giants and set the direction for the S&P 500 in the coming days, with the first trading session after the report on Thursday.
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