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The author tested a rule of buying the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on the first day it closes at least 15% below a record and holding for a year, using daily closes since 2012. Of eight signals that have had a full year to play out, seven ended with gains, with a median gain of about 29%. The only loss came from the January 25, 2022 signal, when the fund fell about 45% from its December 2021 record by October 2022, and it did not close above that high again until July 2023. The author argues the rule is likely no better than buying on any trading day, which produced a gain about 82% of the time with a similar median of about 29%. The author sees the fund as worth considering at this price, best added in stages within a diversified portfolio, but notes the small sample and does not expect a quick gain.
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The Russell 2000 rose 2% in the week ended Oct. 23, snapping six straight weekly declines, its longest losing streak since 2018, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell. The author links the divergence to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has fallen from a 5.36% peak in early October to below 5% as AI spending concerns drove a flight to safety, and notes that small-caps have been about twice as sensitive to Treasury yields as large-caps, according to State Street. Small-cap earnings are expected to grow more than 20% year over year, while the Russell 2000 trades at around 18 times earnings. The risk is that futures still price in two or three more quarter-point rate hikes by mid-2027, and a reversal in long-term yields could quickly fade any rebound. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is about 9% below its August all-time high.
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Vertiv shares jumped 16.48% on Wednesday after its leadership offered bullish comments on the AI market. Third-quarter net sales rose 61% year over year to $4.3 billion, with the Americas, Asia-Pacific and EMEA segments up 75%, 50% and 23%, respectively, as its power and cooling products are increasingly used in AI data centers. Despite concerns that rising debt and higher interest rates could slow construction, CEO Giordano Albertazzi said the infrastructure build-out is accelerating. Adjusted earnings rose 78% to $2.21 per share, above Wall Street's projection of $1.82, while operating and free cash flow climbed 64% and 50% to $794 million and $652 million. Management now expects full-year adjusted earnings to rise 70% to $7.15 per share.
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