The author tested a rule of buying the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on the first day it closes at least 15% below a record and holding for a year, using daily closes since 2012. Of eight signals that have had a full year to play out, seven ended with gains, with a median gain of about 29%. The only loss came from the January 25, 2022 signal, when the fund fell about 45% from its December 2021 record by October 2022, and it did not close above that high again until July 2023. The author argues the rule is likely no better than buying on any trading day, which produced a gain about 82% of the time with a similar median of about 29%. The author sees the fund as worth considering at this price, best added in stages within a diversified portfolio, but notes the small sample and does not expect a quick gain.
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NVDA
• NeutralNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 10/28/2026 | 215.39 |
| Change that session | -1.17% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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