Leaders and experts at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said the AI boom is a key driver of global growth but poses economic risks if investment in the technology falters. The IMF said AI spending on data centres and chips has cushioned the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, and global trade rose 8.3% in 2023–2025 versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the 'most consequential change' to the global economy in his lifetime, with 'a huge benefit', but warned the path ahead would be 'bumpy'. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a loss of confidence and money running away from AI could create financial stability risks, and an IMF report projected that lower AI investment could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028. Moody's Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could puncture the boom, while Georgieva said without safeguards 'the risks may exceed the opportunities'.
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- Leaders weigh huge benefit, risks of AI for global economy
At the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, policymakers said the AI boom is both a key driver of global growth and a source of risk if investment in the technology falters. The IMF said AI helped cushion the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, with global trade rising 8.3% over 2023–2025, a figure that would be closer to 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the “most consequential change” to the global economy in his lifetime, but warned the path ahead would be “bumpy.” An IMF report projected that a drop in AI investment could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028, while Moody’s Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could “puncture” the boom. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that without safeguards, “the risks may exceed the opportunities.”
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At IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, economic officials from Argentina, Greece, Nigeria and Thailand agreed that all economies should put their fiscal houses in order, as the IMF projects 3.1% global growth in 2026. The IMF upgraded AI-driven economies while downgrading many fuel-importing and war-affected nations, and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that dependence on AI investment creates vulnerability to disappointment cycles. Georgieva named China's low domestic consumption and heavy exports, along with U.S. low savings and high debt and deficits, as the biggest sources of global imbalance. Argentina cut spending by 30% to eliminate a fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP and brought inflation down to approximately 30% from 211% in 2023, while Nigeria's central bank raised rates by 800 basis points in 2024, bringing inflation down about 20 percentage points to about 15%.
- China third-quarter growth narrowly beats forecasts
China's economy grew 4.5% in July–September from a year earlier, slightly above the 4.4% AFP poll forecast and up from 4.3% in the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The figure still sits at the lower end of Beijing's 4.5–5.0% annual target, and officials described domestic demand as insufficient. September retail sales rose 1.1%, the fastest since March, while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% over the first nine months. Exports, boosted by AI-related demand, remain a bright spot and could top last year's $1.2 trillion trade surplus, stoking tensions with the EU and US. The IMF recently lowered its forecast for China's annual growth this year to 4.5%.
- China economy accelerated in the July - September quarter on robust exports
China said its economy grew 4.5% year on year in the July–September quarter, up from 4.3% in April–June, helped by strong exports, and 4.6% over the first three quarters. Domestic demand remains weak as the property downturn drags on, and analysts warn the headline figure increasingly masks gaps across industries, regions and households. Exports rose 36% last month, and the trade surplus so far this year reached $938 billion, putting China on track to exceed last year's record $1.2 trillion. The EU, which runs a trade deficit with China, has agreed with Beijing to roughly halve imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles over the next few years, while Chinese exports to the EU rose 16% in the first three quarters. The IMF trimmed its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5%, the lower end of Beijing's 4.5%–5% target.
- IMF annual meeting : Developing nations need greater digital connectivity
At the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put global growth at 3.1% and global inflation at 4.7%. While an AI boom is lifting technology-exporting economies, developing and climate-vulnerable regions face a double hit from high energy costs and climate disasters, and over 60% of low-income nations are in or near debt distress. Delegates argued for a two-part strategy: fiscal consolidation to service debt while protecting social safety nets, and aggressive investment in digital connectivity so developing economies can share in the tech recovery. Wayne Henry, Chairman and Director General of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, said many developing economies need to catch up on digital connectivity to benefit from technological advances.
- IMF and World Bank meetings leave developing countries with more questions than answers
IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok offered no new answers for developing countries facing the Middle East war, the war in Ukraine, rising debt payments and a potential AI bubble. The institutions again urged shrinking fiscal deficits and accelerating reforms to attract private investment. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said advanced economies were the worst offenders for budget imbalances, and that developing countries' debt-servicing payments had more than doubled over a decade to 14% of government revenue. The World Bank said growth in developing economies had slowed to about 3.6% from 4.4%, while experts urged more inclusive growth. Nearly half the delegates at an IMF steering committee walked out when Russia's finance minister spoke.
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