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Related tickers and likely impact
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 769.05 |
| Change that session | +0.34% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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Wall Street faces a tug-of-war as booming earnings for technology and energy firms collide with a relentless rise in bond yields, which have reached their highest levels in decades. Analysts expect earnings to keep soaring on AI data center build-outs, while oil prices, pushed into triple-digit territory by the war with Iran, add pressure on consumers. The market has split into AI and non-AI stocks, and AI stocks sold off last week as Treasury yields fell and investors questioned the AI-driven growth story. Valuations have slumped: the S&P 500 trades at 19 times expected earnings, below its five-year and 10-year averages, according to FactSet. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said earnings growth and the rising cost of capital are in a race to determine stock prices.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have hit several record closing highs over the past four years, driven by AI infrastructure spending, record-breaking IPOs and better-than-expected earnings. The article highlights outstanding margin debt, reported monthly by FINRA, as a measure of investor risk-taking, since borrowing can magnify both gains and losses. Since 1997, margin debt has surged at least 65% over a short period four times, and the three earlier episodes preceded major bear markets, including the dot-com crash, the financial crisis and the 2022 downturn. From April 2025 to June 2026, margin debt rose 77% to an all-time high of $1.502 trillion, which the article says could foreshadow trouble for stocks, though long-term investors have historically benefited.
- S&P 500 Correction Risk Grows as Index Rally Lacks Broad Participation
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US stock indexes closed higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% to 7,744.06 and the Dow up 556.21 points (1.1%) to 52,177.69, led by companies reporting stronger profits such as Marsh & McLennan, Kimberly-Clark and Bank of New York Mellon. AI stocks remained volatile: after a selloff had sent South Korea's Kospi down 7.6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 4.9% early in the day, losses for Nvidia and TSMC moderated, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.1% to 26,713.03. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 5.09% from 5.19%, even though another report showed inflation worsened more than expected. Worries remain about whether heavy AI spending, often funded by borrowing, can continue while bond yields worldwide sit near their highest levels in years. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 rose 1.1%.
- A Staggering 84% of S&P 500 Stocks Are Now in Correction Territory, and History Says This Foreshadows Disaster for Wall Street
As of Oct. 13, 84% of the 503 S&P 500 components were at least 10% below their record highs, even though the index was just 0.2% from its all-time high, as a small group of AI stocks carried the market. Some 59% of components were down at least 20% from their highs, and 17% were down more than 50%. Citing Bank of America's historical analysis, the article notes that concentrated trends in railroads in the early 20th century, the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970s and tech and telecom in 2000 all eventually burst, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 49% and 78% after the dot-com bubble. The author argues that although timing cannot be predicted, the current concentration leaves the market vulnerable to even a small setback from a few companies.
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SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, continued net selling of nearly 12 tonnes of gold in the 22/10 session, bringing total sales over 2 sessions to nearly 15 tonnes and cutting its holdings to about 1,046 tonnes. Spot gold fell more than 2.8% to around USD 4,025 per ounce at the close of 22/10, and briefly dipped below USD 4,000 per ounce in the morning session of 23/10. Tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and further Fed tightening, and gold has still not attracted sustained safe-haven demand even as US Treasury yields fell. US September CPI rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, while PPI rose 1.3% and 6.3%. Markets price about an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its 27-28/10 meeting and a 16% chance of a 25 basis-point increase; September PCE data due on 29/10 is the next key factor to watch.
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On the morning of 23/10, domestic gold prices kept falling, with SJC bar prices varying by seller and the premium over world gold widening. Công ty TNHH Vàng bạc đá quý Sài Gòn listed SJC bars at VND 139-142 million per tael (buy-sell), down VND 300,000; Phú Quý was at VND 138-141.8 million, down VND 500,000; and Mi Hồng at VND 140-141.5 million, down VND 800,000. Gold rings also fell by varying amounts, with DOJI at VND 138-142 million and Phú Quý at VND 138-141 million per tael. World gold dropped USD 129 to around USD 3,992 per ounce, equal to about VND 125.3 million per tael, leaving SJC bars about VND 16.7 million per tael above the world price. The State Bank's central rate was set at 25,627 VND/USD, down 5 dong, while Vietcombank quoted 25,660-26,040 VND/USD (buy-sell).
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