The WMO and NOAA project the 2026–27 'Super El Nino' to be one of the most destructive climate events in 50 years, with flooding in the Americas and droughts across Africa and Asia threatening up to 25% of global mine supply depending on the asset class. The WMO sees a near-100% likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027 and could be the strongest ever, with Pacific Ocean temperatures already more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal. The risk adds to commodity supply chains already strained by the wars in Ukraine and Iran and by European heatwaves. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 47% over the past year, and VanEck notes that damage is already surfacing, with the Atlantic's first hurricane-free season since 1914, India's monsoon rainfall 15% below normal, and Panama Canal water levels below average forcing ships to carry less cargo.
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