The All-In Podcast raised concerns about Anthropic's planned IPO, which the hosts said could come around Thanksgiving. They said the market-implied probability that Anthropic goes public this year fell to 74%, from 95% in early September. Investor Day figures cited included Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, net revenue retention of 900%, an adjusted gross margin of 85% and an adjusted operating margin of 11%, though no details were given on how the adjustments were calculated. One host said a price-to-sales multiple of 30 times would require revenue to keep compounding and margins to keep expanding, while Microsoft trades at 11.74 times trailing sales. Microsoft also booked a $3.20 billion gain on its Anthropic investment in fiscal Q4 2026, so a public Anthropic share price would affect the value of that stake daily.
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- Anthropic makes more per employee than every Magnificent Seven company but Nvidia
Anthropic's headcount nearly tripled in a year while revenue grew 13 times, lifting revenue per employee over the past year to more than $6.6 million from $1.4 million a year earlier, according to the IPO prospectus filed Monday. By Yahoo Finance calculations, that trails only Nvidia (about $7.2 million), ahead of Meta ($3.6 million), Apple ($3.1 million) and Amazon ($0.5 million), though the measure reflects sales rather than profit. The prospectus credits Claude for much of this leanness, saying more than 90% of code added to Anthropic's codebase in September was written by Claude, as revenue rose from $41 million in 2023 to $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026. At the reportedly discussed $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion IPO valuation, Anthropic would be worth $283 million to $377 million per employee, two to three times Nvidia's $121 million.
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The article asks whether the market will give Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei the same leeway it has given Elon Musk at Tesla and SpaceX. Jared Carmel, co-founder of Manhattan Venture Partners, said Musk is 'one of one' with a rock-star persona that earns him more leeway, while calling Amodei's business amazing; Manhattan invests in both SpaceX and Anthropic. Anthropic is reportedly preparing to publicly file its S-1 prospectus soon, and leaked draft details show first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion versus $1.1 billion a year earlier, but also an $80.7 billion first-half net loss. Investment bankers are reportedly targeting a listing valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, and the company could debut before the end of November.
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