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Turmoil hits AI build-out as neoclouds face pressure, credit risks mount and Solidigm pulls IPO

Neocloud shares CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN fell sharply this week, with October losses each well over 30%, while CoreWeave's CDS spreads widened past 11%, a level generally viewed as distressed. Meta posted negative free cash flow of over $2 billion in Q3 and raised the floor of its full-year capex to $135 billion from $130 billion, pushing its five-year CDS to an all-time high of over 124 basis points. CDS on Nvidia and Oracle also hit records at 126 and 343 basis points, and Oracle's stock has lost over one-third of its value this year and faces risks of a credit rating downgrade. SK Hynix pulled the planned IPO of its Solidigm unit, citing market volatility, while Gartner predicts 80% of neocloud companies will cease operations or be absorbed by 2030. Mega-caps have kept their investment-grade ratings, but the market is showing jitters.

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