SpaceX (SPCX) shares have risen about 35% from their August low as investor confidence grows, though they remain roughly 10% below their first-day closing price. The company's second-quarter report showed revenue up 92% year over year and a net loss cut almost in half. Starlink subscriptions doubled to 12 million, with more than 11,000 satellites in orbit, while xAI revenue rose 247% and it signed multiyear contracts with Alphabet and Anthropic. The author argues that a price-to-sales multiple of 68, far above the S&P 500's average of 3.8, does not justify the risk given a major lockup ending in December and the company's lack of profit, though he would consider buying at a different valuation.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
SpaceXIPOvaluationartificial intelligence
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- SpaceX Investors, Mark Your Calendars: A Massive Stock Lockup Expiration Is Coming
SpaceX (SPCX) became the largest IPO on record in June and has been highly volatile since, reaching highs of about $225.64 and lows of $104.83. The company has already gone through six lockup expiries, and the stock has climbed about 27% since Aug. 6. The largest single-event expiry is approaching: 1.3 billion new shares become eligible for sale two full trading days after the third-quarter earnings report (scheduled for Oct. 20), with another 328 million unlocking on Oct. 24. The article says the share price will depend heavily on Q3 results, but argues that valuation at 200 times forward earnings leaves the company little room for error.
- Prediction: $3,000 Invested in SpaceX Will Be Worth This Much by 2030
SpaceX (SPCX), which went public in June, operates three segments: space, connectivity and AI. Connectivity is the largest source of revenue and profit, with Starlink generating $4.3 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 66% year over year, and $1.7 billion in segment operating income, the company's only consistent profitability. The AI segment, which includes Grok, Cursor and computing infrastructure, generated $2.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, up nearly 247%, but its AI infrastructure is operating at a loss due to heavy investment. The market capitalization is around $2 trillion, and consensus expects $116 billion in revenue next year, a forward price-to-sales ratio of roughly 17, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecast more than $300 billion in annual revenue by 2030. The author considers a $5 trillion market capitalization a realistic outcome by December 2030, which would turn a $3,000 investment into $7,500, though the current valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
- Eric Schmidt’s 1% Anthropic Stake Set to Pay Massive Windfall
Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt owns about 1% of Anthropic PBC thanks to his early investment in the startup, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially making him one of the largest individual beneficiaries of the company's imminent IPO. Schmidt, 71, invested tens of millions of dollars in Anthropic's Series A round in 2021, when the company was valued at $461 million. Investors indicated last week a fair valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion, with the high end more than 4,300 times the Series A valuation; at that value, his stake would lift his net worth by about one-third to nearly $80 billion. Even at Anthropic's latest $965 billion valuation, the stake would add nearly $10 billion to his existing $57.5 billion fortune. Schmidt has also invested in Mistral AI, Reflection AI and World Labs, and a $2 trillion debut would beat Innovation Endeavors' early 2011 bet on Uber.
- Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year
Investors had expected a wave of major 2026 IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, but several offerings have been postponed and OpenAI has ruled out listing this year. On prediction market Kalshi, Anthropic, which confidentially filed a prospectus with the SEC in early June, is the only major company with better-than-even odds (75% as of Monday morning) of officially announcing an IPO this year. Odds for others have fallen sharply, such as Plaid (from 50% to 10%) and Databricks (from over 50% to 1%). Although IPO proceeds are up thanks to megacap debuts like SpaceX, the number of U.S. IPOs priced this year is down 33% from 2025, according to Renaissance Capital. Anthropic's third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion showed slower growth, and a revised IPO valuation range starting at $1.5T, instead of the earlier expected at least $2T, was viewed as disappointing.
- Anthropic Reportedly Posted Quarterly Revenue Growth of 50% and Was Cash-Flow Positive. Here's Why It Might Not Be Enough to Impress Investors Before the Company's Massive IPO
Anthropic reportedly told investors at a private day that its revenue reached $16.8 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up 50% quarter over quarter, and that it was cash-flow positive and adjusted-profitable. That growth is slower than the 140% gain seen between the first and second quarters, and Jefferies had reportedly expected an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion. The company has delayed its IPO registration statement twice amid AI safety concerns and very heavy infrastructure spending. A Saxo Markets strategist says a valuation above $2 trillion would be about 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, making valuation the main debate. The article argues investors are now asking tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns, so these results may not impress them much.
- ABC Business - WOND
Elon Musk, the world's wealthiest person, on Monday vowed to give every child in the U.S. a share of SpaceX, a company valued at nearly $2 trillion, starting next year. Based on an estimated 73 million children under 18 and a share price of about $150, the giveaway would total nearly $11 billion, or about 1.2% of Musk's $908.5 billion net worth. Musk did not say how or when the shares would be distributed or what age cutoff would apply. The pledge came as Anthropic announced a Public Benefit Fund holding 5% of its shares and the OpenAI Foundation planned to invest $1 billion over a year, amid concerns about AI's effects on jobs and the economy.
Related markets
Latest news
- Chips lead Nasdaq lower, oil tops 5-month high: AlphaCheck
Stocks were mixed on Tuesday as chip stocks gave up the previous session's rebound while oil prices climbed. Brent crude hovered near a 5-month high at $110 per barrel and WTI traded just below $100, following Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi Arabia amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. The tech sector fell, led by Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), while memory makers Micron (MU) and SK Hynix (SKHY) also declined as Monday's rebound in the AI trade faded. Investors focused on earnings from GM, GE Aerospace and RTX released Tuesday, with SpaceX, Tesla and Meta also expected to report later in the week.
- Salesforce announces $5.66 billion deal for Braze, sending BRZE stock soaring 50%
Salesforce agreed to buy customer engagement platform Braze for about $5.66 billion, with Braze Class A holders receiving $47.50 in cash per share and closing expected in fiscal 2028, according to a Salesforce blog. Salesforce shares slipped about 1% Tuesday morning, while BRZE soared more than 50% after a brief premarket halt, from a $30.04 close on Monday. Braze makes AI marketing tools for managing customer data and messaging, and CEO Bill Magnuson said Salesforce's platform will help the company innovate faster.
- SpaceX reports after the bell. Here's what options traders expect
SpaceX reports earnings after the bell on Tuesday. Over the past three months it delivered four astronauts to the International Space Station in record time, expanded its mobile network spectrum, was reportedly eyeing a $40 billion debt deal to buy Nvidia chips, and CEO Elon Musk said he plans to give shares to every kid in America next year. Options market-makers price a roughly 6% move after the report, per Cboe LiveVol data, less than half the 13% erased after its August debut report. The stock rallied 60% over the following two months before reversing, dropping as much as 19% in the past two weeks. Monday's 1.1 million contracts traded were 20% above the 30-day average, with 665,000 calls, and implied volatility is 62 versus above 110 before second-quarter earnings. Two lockup releases, one two days after earnings and one on October 26, together cover over 1.6 billion shares, while earlier releases on Sep. 9, 10 and 24 had no discernible effect.
- Hedge Funds Dumped Tech Stocks at the Fastest Pace in a Decade, Goldman Says
Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data showed hedge funds sold technology stocks at the fastest pace in at least a decade in the week through October 15, 2026, with semiconductors taking the largest dollar hit. The selling was mainly long liquidation, meaning funds sold shares they already owned rather than opening many new short positions. The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% that week, its worst week since April 2025, and net leverage dropped to 48.6%, a one-year low, yet tech still made up 23.5% of Goldman's global prime book, in the 90th percentile of the past 5 years. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4.08% over the week versus 7.88% for the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). A close below $214.13 would suggest the selling has not run its course, while a move back to $226.32, its October 12 close, would indicate funds have finished selling.
- Kazakhstan court bars Coinbase, five others from unlicensed crypto services in Astana International Financial Centre
Kazakhstan's financial regulator AFSA secured court orders restricting Coinbase and five other exchanges, including BingX, Bitcoin.com, Huobi Global (HTX), BitMart and WEEX, from offering or marketing unlicensed digital asset services in the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). The injunctions apply only to users within the AIFC, not nationwide, and bind Google and Apple as app-store operators, though the court declined to issue a separate injunction against them and said AFSA should first discuss necessary steps with the firms. LBank was removed from the case on Sept. 18 after addressing AFSA's concerns and blocking access in Kazakhstan. Other platforms failed to respond in time, so the court entered default judgment, and AFSA had begun warnings to more than 20 platforms in 2025.
- Gunnison Copper expands to Wall Street with NYSE American ADR listing
Gunnison Copper is listing an ADR on the NYSE American under the symbol GUNN, with trading expected on or about October 26, subject to SEC registration effectiveness and final exchange approvals. Each ADR represents 30 common shares, giving US institutional and retail investors broader access to the Phoenix-based domestic copper producer. The company produces copper cathode at its Johnson Camp Mine in Arizona, supplies the US defense sector and Amazon Web Services, and is advancing the Gunnison Copper Project about 1.5 miles away. The listing complements its existing Toronto and Frankfurt listings and does not affect its common shares.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.