The article compares Anthropic's IPO with Amazon's 1997 IPO, when Amazon priced at $18 a share, raised $54 million and was valued at about $430 million; today it is worth about $2.6 trillion. The author argues that Anthropic resembles Amazon in 1997 in business terms but is stronger, with more than 1,900 customers spending over $1 million a year and an operating profit in the second quarter, while Amazon did not post a full-year profit until 2003. On price, Amazon cost about 27 times trailing revenue at its IPO, whereas Anthropic at $1.5 to $2 trillion would be 76 to 101 times, well above Cisco's roughly 29 times at the top of the bubble. After Amazon's 1999 high, its stock fell 94% even as revenue kept growing, taking until about 2009 to regain that peak. The piece concludes that the Amazon story is about price, and says it does not predict Anthropic will fall 94%.
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