The article ranks 10 famous IPOs by how much buyers paid per dollar of revenue in the last fiscal year before listing. The biggest winners went public at about 16x to 28x revenue, while SpaceX and Anthropic cost 76x to 101x. The cheapest listings, Aramco at 5x and Uber at 7x, did not make buyers rich, while Amazon, Google and Facebook grew fast at prices that left room for that growth and produced returns of 15x, 150x and 6,000x. Every winner fell sharply before paying off, with Amazon down 94%, Google about 65% during the financial crisis and Facebook down 77% in 2021–22. The author argues that SpaceX and Anthropic, priced three to six times higher than past winners per dollar of revenue, would need faster and longer growth than Google's to follow a similar path.
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The author argues the Anthropic IPO, which could value the Claude developer at up to $2 trillion and possibly surpass SpaceX's $1.77 trillion debut on June 12, is likely to disappoint retail investors. Citing a Truist dataset of 30 tech-focused IPOs since May 2012, the article notes that only 43% finished higher one year after debut, with an average year-one peak-to-trough drop of 55%. Based on about $19.7 billion of trailing 12-month sales, a $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation would mean a price-to-sales ratio of 76 to 102, well above the level of 30 the article cites as a bubble marker. The author also argues that AI adoption is still early, noting that businesses took years after the dot-com bubble to optimize internet-based solutions.
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Anthropic, the AI company behind the Claude chatbot, has filed for an IPO, and its stock could begin trading next month. It would follow SpaceX's June listing, which valued the rocket company at around $1.8 trillion. Anthropic's revenue grew from $1.2 billion in the first six months of 2025 to $16.3 billion over the first two quarters of this year, but its operating expenses, just under $17 billion, still exceed revenue, and competition is intensifying. The author argues the company is not worth even $1 trillion and that its IPO valuation could be around double that figure. SpaceX shares have fallen about 35% from their early-trading peak of more than $225, and the author warns Anthropic's stock could face a sharp sell-off.
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Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI tools, may be heading toward an IPO after releasing its prospectus this month, with press reports eyeing a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Its revenue in the six months ended June 30 reportedly surged 1,300% to more than $16 billion, with net revenue retention of 900% as of Sept. 30 and over half of the Fortune 500 spending $100,000 or more on its services. The article flags risks in the prospectus, including a history of losses and potential catastrophic or existential AI risks. Historically, eight of 10 of the biggest IPOs from 1999 through 2023 fell in their first three months of trading, and SpaceX dropped about 6% in its first three months after its June IPO, which raised $85 billion. The author says aggressive investors may move quickly, while most others could keep Anthropic on their watch lists.
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