Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House in Tuesday's midterms and about seven in ten odds of taking the Senate. Federal government business made up 20.9% of SpaceX's 2025 revenue, about $3.9 billion, while Starlink drives most of its $18.7 billion in 2025 sales. Democrats could trim missile-defense money, including Golden Dome, for which the Pentagon requested about $17.5 billion for 2027, but could restore NASA funding that the White House's 2027 request cut 23% to $18.8 billion. The bigger new risk is oversight: Democrats have said they would subpoena Musk if they win the House, and inquiries into his DOGE role and his companies' federal deals are under discussion.
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