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McDonald's has raised its dividend for 50 consecutive years, making it one of 59 Dividend Kings. Buying 65 shares costs nearly $16,000 for about $500 in annual dividends, with a forward yield of nearly 3.2%. Shares are down nearly 30% from February's peak amid food price inflation and pressure on lower-income customers, and Q2 revenue rose 4% to $7.1 billion but missed estimates. The author notes that longer-term Treasuries yielding above 5% are a competing option for income investors.
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McDonald's aims to gain an additional 1.5 percentage points of global market share in both chicken and beverages by 2030, citing a roughly $130 billion chicken market where it holds about 20% and a $230 billion beverage category where it has 10%, both larger than the $50 billion beef market where it holds about 40%. Consumer Edge card data, however, shows chicken and coffee chains taking more spending from McDonald's customers: Chick-fil-A gained 0.58 percentage points, while four coffee chains combined added 0.88 points. McDonald's U.S. comparable sales were slightly negative in July and August, though the company expects September to turn positive. Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said beverage launches have not offset broader weakness and the next chicken platform is further away than expected, keeping a market perform rating and $295 price target as shares closed around $235.
- McDonald's is about to report earnings. Here's what to expect
McDonald's is expected to report third-quarter earnings before the bell on Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect earnings per share of $3.38 and revenue of $7.29 billion. Last quarter, the U.S. business fell short due to uneven execution of value offers and complicated menu launches, and the company tapped Skye Anderson as its new U.S. president. StreetAccount estimates that same-store sales declined 0.5% in the third quarter, and investors will watch commentary on the fourth quarter after Chipotle said traffic softened in October. Shares have fallen about 11% over the past year on concerns about the U.S. business, expensive restaurant upgrade plans and the broader economy, and the company has a market cap of roughly $186 billion.
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Third-quarter earnings season is moving beyond the Magnificent 7, with NVIDIA the only one still to report. Over 1,000 companies, including small and mid-cap firms, report this week, with consumer names such as restaurants, travel, beauty and apparel in focus after cruise lines and hotel chains have so far beaten expectations. The article highlights AMD, which has not missed earnings in five years, though its shares fell 26% over the past month on an AI sell-off; earnings are expected to rise 81% in fiscal 2026 after a 26% gain in fiscal 2025. McDonald's has beaten in three of its last four quarters, but its shares are down 13% year-to-date on consumer spending worries and it trades at a forward P/E of 20. Expedia has beaten five quarters in a row and its shares gained 12.8% over the past month, with a forward P/E of 14, while e.l.f. Beauty has a streak of six straight beats after its only miss in the past five years, in 2025.
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According to an analyst, McDonald's franchisees have complained about “tough meat” and other issues with its new hand-breaded chicken. The article gives no further details on these problems.
- McDonald's Is 29% Below Its 52-Week High and Yields 3.2%. Is This the Best Entry Point in Years?
McDonald's (MCD) shares trade 29% below their 52-week high of $341.75 and have fallen 20.6% in 2026, the third-worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after IBM and Nike. The stock closed at $242.67 on Oct. 19 and yields 3.2%, nearly triple the S&P 500's dividend yield. McDonald's raised its dividend nearly 4% last month, its 50th consecutive annual increase, a pace above the September consumer price index rise of 3.7% year over year. If Morningstar is right, the payout could grow about 9% annually on average over the next decade. The article attributes the slump to higher costs, inflation-sensitive consumers and execution problems that CEO Chris Kempczinski acknowledges, and points to the NEXT plan, which includes AI, store revamps, simpler operations and a simpler menu, aiming to add $100,000 in annual cash flow per average location.
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