Stanley Black & Decker was the strongest performer in the S&P 500 today. Several tech companies and associated power providers posted sharp declines.
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S&P 500Democratic Partytech stocksmidterm elections
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
▲ Likely positiveInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 685.34 |
| Change that session | +0.62% |
SPY
▲ Likely positiveSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 754.41 |
| Change that session | +0.31% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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- Will a Democratic Blue Wave Cause the Trump Bull Market to Crash? History Weighs in With a Potentially Unpleasant Answer.
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Dow Jones futures rose 0.6%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures were just above flat after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, paving the way for a divided government. Markets quickly repriced the possibility of ballot measures and newly elected officials restricting data center construction. Chip stocks including Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU) fell more than 1%, while AMD (AMD) rose 6% in premarket trading after beating expectations with its Q3 earnings. Investors are also watching for actions on housing and pharmaceuticals after the election, and the economic calendar includes ADP private payrolls and ISM activity data.
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According to the Associated Press, Democrats have taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and President Trump will work with a Democrat-led Congress starting in early January. The article notes that a divided Congress is unlikely to pass major tax and spending bills, but could complicate debt-ceiling talks in 2027 and raise the risk of a lengthy government shutdown, while Democrats favor stricter AI rules such as limiting data center expansion. Prediction markets put Democratic control at 94% for the House and 77% for the Senate, while UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning both chambers. Citing Retirement Researcher, the article says the S&P 500 has averaged 16.63% annual gains since 1926 under a Democratic president and a divided Congress, versus 7.33% under a Republican president and a split Congress. The article argues that company operations and innovation, rather than political outcomes, are the main drivers of long-term investor returns.
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The article cites Retirement Researcher's analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1926 to 2023, showing average annual returns of 16.63% under a split Congress with a Democratic president, 14.51% under unified Republican control, 14.01% under unified Democratic control, and 7.33% under a split Congress with a Republican president. If prediction markets are correct, the last scenario would take shape over the next two years. UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning both chambers, while prediction markets put Democratic control of the House at 94% and the Senate at 77%. The article notes that 7.33% still beats average returns of Treasury bonds, commodities, real estate and certificates of deposit. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied the following year every time a party lost both houses of Congress, by an average of 21.3%.
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