The article cites Retirement Researcher's analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1926 to 2023, showing average annual returns of 16.63% under a split Congress with a Democratic president, 14.51% under unified Republican control, 14.01% under unified Democratic control, and 7.33% under a split Congress with a Republican president. If prediction markets are correct, the last scenario would take shape over the next two years. UBS assigns a 50% probability to Democrats winning both chambers, while prediction markets put Democratic control of the House at 94% and the Senate at 77%. The article notes that 7.33% still beats average returns of Treasury bonds, commodities, real estate and certificates of deposit. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has rallied the following year every time a party lost both houses of Congress, by an average of 21.3%.
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S&P 500midterm electionsDemocratic PartyUS Congress
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Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 685.34 |
| Change that session | +0.62% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 11/03/2026 | 754.41 |
| Change that session | +0.31% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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