U.S. stocks fell almost 1% in October as tech shares sank after disappointing third-quarter earnings, but REITs rose 4.8% and commodities gained 4.1%, as measured by the VNQ and GSG ETFs. Brent crude stayed above $100 a barrel all month amid tensions in the Persian Gulf, driving commodity indexes higher. The author argues REITs can keep performing well because of solid cash flows, earnings and balance sheets, even as interest rates are expected to rise, absent an unexpected shock to the U.S. economy. Futures markets expect two to three more quarter-point rate hikes by the end of 2027, even though the Federal Reserve did not hike at its October meeting. The author suggests commodities should continue to benefit from oil prices as long as Persian Gulf tensions and the war in Ukraine persist.
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