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Wayfair said its third quarter posted its strongest sales growth since the pandemic, with U.S. revenue reaching about $3 billion, up 11.4%, while international net revenue fell 2.3% to $380 million. Total revenue rose 9.7% to $3.42 billion, above the $3.38 billion LSEG analyst estimate, and adjusted earnings per share were 93 cents versus 79 cents expected. The company posted net income of $62 million, or 45 cents per share, compared with a loss of $99 million a year earlier. Active customers grew 4.7% to 22.2 million, and orders delivered rose 12.2% to about 11 million. CFO Kate Gulliver said the company is keeping promotional activity for the holiday quarter similar to last year.
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The U.S. holiday shopping season is about to begin and is expected to be very strong, and the article highlights three online retail stocks with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy): Amazon.com (AMZN), Wayfair (W) and Groupon (GRPN). Mastercard projects U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles and gas) during the holiday period to rise 5.5% year over year, the highest growth since 2021, with online sales up 11%. Deloitte estimates holiday sales growth of 4–4.8%, while Ernst & Young-Parthenon forecasts a 5.2% increase to $1.08 trillion from $1.03 trillion in 2025. In Q2 2026, Amazon's AWS sales rose 37% to $42.2 billion and advertising revenue rose 26% to $19.8 billion, while Wayfair's mobile share of second-quarter orders reached 64.1% and revenue per active customer grew 4.2%. Zacks consensus for 2026 projects revenue of $829.29 billion and EPS of $13.02 for Amazon, and $13.37 billion and $2.99 for Wayfair; for Groupon, the article says recovery still depends on execution.
- Shopify falls 9% after Q3 revenue and merchandise volume miss estimates
Shopify shares fell 9% in early trading on Tuesday after the e-commerce platform missed estimates for subscription gross profit and gross merchandise volume (GMV). Adjusted earnings of 49 cents per share beat LSEG's 46 cents, but quarterly revenue of $3.74 billion came in just below the $3.75 billion estimate. GMV of $119.15 billion trailed StreetAccount's $120.03 billion, and subscription gross profit of $661 million fell short of $680.3 million, while subscription revenue of $836 million missed $848.1 million per FactSet. Merchant gross profit and merchant revenue beat estimates. Shopify expects fourth-quarter revenue growth in the “low thirties” percent range, versus LSEG's 32.1%.
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MercadoLibre and Dutch Bros are 37% and 49% below their record highs, respectively, even as the S&P 500 hits new peaks. MercadoLibre posted 50% revenue growth in Q2, but profitability has declined for two straight quarters as management invests to grow. Dutch Bros had 1,225 stores at the end of Q2 and aims to reach 2,029 by 2029, with Q2 revenue up 32% and same-store sales up 5.8%. Its shares fell after the market reacted poorly to its August guidance, rising coffee bean costs, and the end of its bid for a restaurant chain that would have added 65 stores. The author views both as worth buying on the dip.
- If a Stock Market Crash Comes in November, You'll Rest Easy Owning This 50-Year Dividend King
The article presents Walmart as a defensive stock because it is the largest U.S. supermarket chain, with more than 5,700 stores including Sam's Club, and one store is within 10 miles of 90% of the population. Its e-commerce sales rose 23% year over year in fiscal second quarter 2027, the 10th consecutive quarter of U.S. e-commerce growth above 20%, while Statista estimates its market share at 9.2% versus Amazon's 40.5%. The stock is up about 12% year to date, and management raised full-year guidance from a 4% growth midpoint to 4.5%. The article highlights Walmart's 53 consecutive years of dividend increases as a source of income during downturns, and says the stock beat the broader market in the 2000 and 2008 crashes.
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The success or failure of bot shoppers will depend on trust. So far, traditional retailers have the upper hand.
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Shopify closed at a record high of $179.22 per share, a 613% gain from its $25.13 low in 2022, but has since pulled back to about $151. The author believes the company's self-service commerce model is resilient, supported by an ecosystem that includes Shop Pay, Shopify Capital, Shopify Plus, POS systems and AI tools. Revenue grew at a 26% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, the company turned profitable in 2023, and analysts expect revenue and EPS to grow at 28% and 44% CAGRs from 2025 to 2028. The stock trades at 68 times next year's earnings, a premium the author says could be justified by market share gains in enterprise commerce and the high-margin Merchant Solutions segment. The article notes the stock could remain under pressure if inflation stays hot and interest rates stay elevated.
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