Boeing's backlog stands at $745 billion, including $612 billion in commercial airplanes, which the author sees as support for long-term income. Two 2027 catalysts are highlighted: a 737 MAX production ramp to 52 a month in the second half of the year, and certification and first delivery of the 777-9 variant of the 777X, a program delayed since 2020 that has tied up cash. Management expects 52 a month in the second half of 2027 and deliveries in the "mid-to-high 50s" in 2029. The author says these are reasonable assumptions though not guaranteed, and that certification would de-risk the program. The author concludes Boeing's stock could be materially higher next year.
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Boeing's latest quarterly update disappointed mainly because management pushed back the 737 MAX production ramp-up, now expecting a stable rate of 47 a month in 2027 before targeting 52 in the second half of 2027. The author says Boeing Global Services remains solid and Boeing Defense, Space & Security is profitable again, though fixed-price programs account for only about 15% of sales. Backlog totals $745 billion, including $612 billion at Boeing Commercial Airplanes with more than 6,300 planes. The CFO's building blocks for $10 billion in normalized free cash flow include 52 737 MAX deliveries, 10 787 deliveries a month and 777X deliveries, and since management's 2029 outlook for the 737 MAX and 787 exceeds those levels, the author says the cash flow guidance may prove conservative and finds the stock attractive for value-oriented investors.
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Boeing shares fell again after management cut its outlook, with the 737 MAX production ramp-up delayed by up to a year and free cash flow (FCF) forecasts below consensus. FCF is projected at $2 billion in 2026, $3 billion in 2027, $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029, versus Visible Alpha consensus of $5.3 billion, $9.5 billion and $12.4 billion for 2027–2029. The 777X certification, expected by mid-2027, followed by first delivery, is a major risk, as delays would keep more cash tied up in undelivered aircraft. The author estimates that if Boeing reaches $10 billion in FCF in 2029 and trades at 20 times FCF, the share price would be about $252, an annual return of 14.4% to 2029, and considers management's 2027–2029 production targets conservative. The author says the stock looks attractive after the reset if production targets are met, though volatility is likely, and points to a $745 billion backlog.
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Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is buying 40 Boeing shares at about $173.23, raising its holding to 660 shares and its weighting to about 3% from 2.75%. Boeing fell 10% after CEO Kelly Ortberg gave a multiyear free cash flow outlook below expectations, citing lower commercial-jet deliveries and higher capital expenditures for a next-generation Navy fighter jet contract. Analysts had expected about $10 billion of free cash flow in 2028, but management pushed that target back to 2029. The author sees the reset as achievable and likely beatable, and credits Boeing with giving multiyear visibility for the first time in years after progress on culture, supply chain and trust. The Max 7 and Max 10 have now been certified by the FAA, and deliveries on a key part of the $612 billion commercial backlog are set to begin next year.
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Boeing reported an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share, worse than the $0.21 loss Wall Street expected, although revenue of nearly $24.2 billion beat the $23.84 billion forecast. Its total order backlog hit a record $745 billion at the end of September, including over 6,300 commercial airplanes and up about $30 billion from the prior quarter. However, CEO Robert Kelly Ortberg said the 737 Max has not yet reached its stability rate of 47 per month and may not be fully stable at that rate until next year, pushing the target of 52 per month to the second half of 2027, and the stock fell nearly 10.7% on Oct. 27. The 737 Max 10 recently received FAA certification and has over 1,500 orders, while the U.S. Navy selected Boeing for a $20 billion contract to build its sixth-generation fighter aircraft. Ortberg expects free cash flow of about $2 billion this year and $10 billion by 2029, below the $12.5 billion Wall Street consensus had modeled for 2029 before the report.
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