News about seasonality

Based on adjusted closing prices, 10 listed stocks rose in every November from 2022 to 2025: 8 on HOSE and 2 on HNX. On HOSE, HAG, NHA, MSH, HDG, KBC, POW, DHA and HAP kept a four-year streak, though gains varied widely by year. HAG rose 38.85% in November 2023, while KBC gained over 20% in both 2022 and 2023 before slowing to 0.86% in 2025. HAP led HOSE in November 2025 with nearly 11%. On HNX, PVI and L18 held four-year streaks, and PVI jumped 18.81% in November 2025. The article notes past gains are only a seasonal reference and do not guarantee these stocks will rise in November 2026.

The article tests the 'Sell in May and go away' saying using daily S&P 500 closes since 1950, measured on price alone without dividends. The November-to-April stretch rose in 58 of 76 periods, averaging around 7%, while May-to-October rose in 50 of 76, averaging around 2%. Chaining all 76 November-to-April stretches would have grown $1 to around $117, versus about $3.40 for May-to-October. Of the 18 losing stretches, 11 ended down under 5%, but six were sharper and each overlapped a bear market; the author attributes such drops mainly to interest rates and company earnings rather than the calendar. The S&P 500 is up over 6% since the end of April and around 12% in 2026, and the author views November as a fine but not special time to invest for buy-and-hold.

The article argues that analysts tend to overhype stock-market rallies in the fall. It says the numbers show that Santa only arrives once a year.