The article argues that analysts tend to overhype stock-market rallies in the fall. It says the numbers show that Santa only arrives once a year.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Sorry investors, but there’s no such thing as an early ‘Santa Claus rally.’ Here’s when the real gains typically happen.
Read the original on MarketWatch ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
QQQ
• NeutralInvesco QQQ Trust
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 712.20 |
| Change that session | +1.11% |
SPY
• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 765.37 |
| Change that session | +0.71% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- History Says the Stock Market's Best 6 Months Start Nov. 1. Here's How Often They've Paid Off Since 1950.
The article tests the 'Sell in May and go away' saying using daily S&P 500 closes since 1950, measured on price alone without dividends. The November-to-April stretch rose in 58 of 76 periods, averaging around 7%, while May-to-October rose in 50 of 76, averaging around 2%. Chaining all 76 November-to-April stretches would have grown $1 to around $117, versus about $3.40 for May-to-October. Of the 18 losing stretches, 11 ended down under 5%, but six were sharper and each overlapped a bear market; the author attributes such drops mainly to interest rates and company earnings rather than the calendar. The S&P 500 is up over 6% since the end of April and around 12% in 2026, and the author views November as a fine but not special time to invest for buy-and-hold.
- Exchange-Traded Funds Higher as US Equities Rise After Midday
- Stock Market Midday, Nov. 2: Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Tumble on Diplomatic Hopes
As of 11:31 AM ET, the Dow Jones rose 1.05% to 52,314, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.76% to 25,631 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.64% to 7,629 as risk appetite returned. Crude oil fell more than 7% as investors bet on a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran, while gold rose 1.97% to $3,975.80. Oracle dropped 6.2% after announcing a $20 billion fundraising plan, while Amazon rose more than 4% as investors reassessed its record cloud growth. The article says Oracle's filing for $10 billion in stock and $10 billion in bonds to fund AI infrastructure shouldn't have surprised investors, as it followed capital spending plans announced last week.
- These tech stocks got unfairly swept up in last week’s selloff, analysts say
Analysts say some tech stocks were unfairly swept up in last week's selloff. One analyst notes a "meaningful gap between price and fundamentals" in some segments of the chip sector.
- Stock market after midterm elections: What S&P 500 history shows
Stocks have historically tended to perform well after U.S. midterm and presidential elections. A CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2024 found average gains of 0.2% after one day and one week, 1.1% after one month, and 13.7% a year after midterms, with returns positive in 91% of cases. Short-term returns were less reliable after presidential elections, which produced slightly negative averages after one day and one week. Divided government produced an average 15% gain over one year, compared with 11.5% under single-party control. Société Générale argues that Federal Reserve policy and the corporate earnings cycle matter more than elections, while the article flags AI, bond yields, a mini debt crisis in France and the war with Iran as key risks.
- Wall Street Expert Art Hogan Breaks Down His Approach to Recent Tech Choppiness
In a NYSE Live interview, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, discussed the recent pullback in technology stocks after an AI-driven rally, which he sees as a potential opportunity for investors. He said most S&P 500 companies continue to beat earnings and revenue expectations, while market leadership is broadening into healthcare and financials. Hogan views the AI-related weakness as reflecting valuation adjustments and profit-taking rather than a deterioration in the long-term opportunity. He expects technology stocks to stabilize and market breadth to improve through the end of the year, and he also commented on Apple, semiconductors and the midterm elections.
Related markets
Latest news
- 2 of our banks are at the heart of this week's biggest tech deals
The S&P 500 attempted a modest rebound but gave back part of its afternoon gains, with oil prices down roughly 8% on hopes for Middle East peace talks and the 10-year Treasury yield down about 4 basis points. The author cautions against reading too much into any single headline, given the possibility of escalation after the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are involved in several large deals: Goldman is advising Marvell Technology on its all-stock acquisition of Lumentum, valued at $115 billion including debt and expected to close in the first half of calendar 2028 pending approvals including from China. Both banks are among those coordinating Oracle's $10 billion common stock offering and working on Microsoft's $25 billion debt sale, and Goldman is one of the lead banks on Meta Platforms' stock sale. The author says this deal activity supports the banks' results, while lower oil prices and yields have helped holdings including Boeing, Home Depot and FedEx, even as semiconductor names like Micron and Intel remained under pressure.
- Verizon's CEO Has a Warning for SpaceX and Its Mobile Plans
Telecom stocks have been under pressure this year as investors worry that SpaceX plans to turn its Starlink business into a major mobile carrier. Verizon CEO Dan Schulman said on the earnings call that SpaceX would need to build a significant terrestrial network, which would take several years and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and that Verizon will compete aggressively if Starlink pursues mobile market share. Verizon reported strong third-quarter results, with postpaid phone net additions at their best in five years and quarterly net account growth at its highest in more than a decade. The author argues the market is overreacting to the SpaceX risk, citing a valuation of about eight times estimated future profits and a dividend yield of 6.3%.
- Why Cloudflare Stock Took a Dive on Monday
Cloudflare shares fell as much as 6% at the start of the week after Jefferies analyst Joe Gallo kept a hold rating but cut his price target to $320 from $350, still implying 14% potential upside from Friday's close. Gallo expects higher demand for the company's cloud services this quarter but thinks the bar may be set too high. Analyst consensus calls for revenue of $739 million, up 32%, and adjusted EPS of $0.34, up 26%, above management's revenue forecast of $736 million to $737 million. Cloudflare has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters and will report results after the close on Thursday. The article also cites Cloudflare's protective measures against a widely publicized PHP vulnerability, used by roughly 70% of websites, as an example of the importance of its cloud and security services.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) Joins $700 Million Hark Funding Round In AI Assistant Bet
Qualcomm joined Nvidia and AMD in a US$700 million Series A funding round for AI startup Hark, which is valued at US$6 billion. Hark is developing foundation models, software and AI-focused hardware for a next-generation personal assistant platform, and Qualcomm Ventures' participation links the chip designer to efforts to bring AI systems to consumer devices over time. The article ties the investment to Qualcomm's target of reaching US$40 billion in non-handset QCT revenue by fiscal 2029, and notes the company reaffirmed a US$0.92 quarterly dividend. It also highlights the broader effort to reduce reliance on smartphones, and points to commentary on Hark and AI assistant workloads in the December 2026 quarter earnings as an early indicator to watch.
- AMD to report Q3 results following disappointing showing from Intel
AMD will report third-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, as Wall Street looks for signs of AI chip demand after a sharp AI-trade sell-off and a disappointing Q4 outlook from Intel (INTC) last week. Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, well below the $17 billion analysts expected, sending its stock down nearly 29%; the company blamed a steeper-than-expected decline in the PC market. Analysts expect AMD to earn $1.97 per share on $13 billion in revenue, versus $1.20 and $9.2 billion a year earlier. Data Center sales are forecast at $8.19 billion, up 88% from $4.34 billion, while the gaming business could fall 49% to $655 million as higher memory and storage prices weigh on demand. Client revenue, which includes PC sales, is projected at more than $3.06 billion, up 11% year over year but flat sequentially.
- Why Musk's telecom play is no 'Hail Mary' fix
Two speakers discuss Elon Musk's push into telecoms over the past few months. One says the move may lift the stock briefly but is not a Hail Mary that will turn the business around, since telecom is heavily scrutinized for antitrust and not very lucrative; this speaker also doubts Musk's statements that funding is secured and wants to know what he is worried about in ongoing investigations. The other speaker views SpaceX's entry into telecoms positively, as a sign of diversification beyond AI and space, while the first asks when that could become an issue.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.