News · Yahoo Finance

History Says the Stock Market's Best 6 Months Start Nov. 1. Here's How Often They've Paid Off Since 1950.

The article tests the 'Sell in May and go away' saying using daily S&P 500 closes since 1950, measured on price alone without dividends. The November-to-April stretch rose in 58 of 76 periods, averaging around 7%, while May-to-October rose in 50 of 76, averaging around 2%. Chaining all 76 November-to-April stretches would have grown $1 to around $117, versus about $3.40 for May-to-October. Of the 18 losing stretches, 11 ended down under 5%, but six were sharper and each overlapped a bear market; the author attributes such drops mainly to interest rates and company earnings rather than the calendar. The S&P 500 is up over 6% since the end of April and around 12% in 2026, and the author views November as a fine but not special time to invest for buy-and-hold.

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