The article argues that copper demand will outstrip supply, with the gap widening after 2030 according to an S&P Global report, and that supply could start declining from around 2035 due to falling ore grades, rising energy and labor costs, mining complexity and permitting difficulties. Chile, which accounts for almost a quarter of global copper production, is seeing deteriorating ore grades. Freeport-McMoRan's management believes its leaching initiative could ultimately recover 800 million pounds of copper a year from existing stockpiles, compared with its 2028 sales expectation of 4.1 billion pounds. More than 60% of incremental demand from 2024 to 2040 is expected to come from AI, data centers and the energy transition, which may prove relatively inelastic. The author remains more bullish than bearish on copper over the long term, while acknowledging that permitting and declining grades are real problems.
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