Ark Invest's updated valuation model, led by Cathie Wood, projects Tesla shares could reach $5,000 by 2031 in its upside scenario, versus about $375 currently. The downside scenario still reaches $3,300 per share, while the bull case implies a $20.4 trillion market cap, $1.62 trillion in revenue and a 65% EBITDA margin, compared with Tesla's $95 billion in 2025 revenue and 15.4% adjusted EBITDA margin. Ark estimates robotaxis will account for 80% of Tesla's enterprise value by 2031, with 10 million robotaxis generating $900 billion in annual revenue and 1.2 million Optimus robots generating $254 billion. The author views the current robotaxi operation as small compared with Ark's fleet and Optimus as speculative, and notes Tesla already trades at a premium valuation, so he sees it as a speculative long-term investment and would not buy simply because of a forecast of more than 1,200% upside.
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| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.2T |
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 216.48 |
| Change that session | -0.28% |
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