Guest Sam says technology had performed strongly, investors may have been taking profit-taking, and seasonal patterns are favorable, with October tending to be the best month of a midterm election year. He says the market has never declined in the 12 months after October 31 of midterm election years, and suggests OpenAI may face more challenges in 2027 due to heavy borrowing needs, while he is optimistic about Anthropic though he does not follow individual stocks closely. On sentiment, he says days with moves of 1% or more account for 45% of trading days in bear markets versus 15% in bull markets, and that fear is a stronger motivator than greed. He advises not letting emotions push investors out of stocks, noting that after declines of up to 20%, the market has taken about four months on average to return to breakeven.
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