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Why OpenAI could be in trouble if Anthropic's IPO doesn't go well

Manhattan Venture Partners managing partner Jared Carmel says OpenAI's decision to stay private this year may be a strategic misstep, since if Anthropic's upcoming IPO in November does not go well, OpenAI could find it much harder to raise money, especially at its current valuation. He questions whether Anthropic will get the same benefit of the doubt Amazon received in its early years despite years of losses. He points to a shift in token spending, with about 80% of dollars once going to foundational models now moving to open-weight models over the past few weeks. He says this is a longer-term issue to watch over the next 24 months rather than something to resolve today.

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