The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 25-basis-point increase; it was Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022. On Polymarket, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December rose to 82% from about 77% before the announcement, with more than $5.3 million in trading volume. Despite a weak September jobs report showing only 29,000 jobs added, the Fed said job gains kept pace with the workforce and unemployment changed little. Truflation forecasts September PCE inflation at 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August, as gasoline and other energy goods rose 33.7% amid surging oil prices tied to the Iran war. The official PCE report and third-quarter GDP are due Thursday.
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