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- Bitcoin price bounce rejected at 50-day trend line ahead of FOMC, earnings
Bitcoin fell about 0.3% on Wednesday after failing to hold above $81,687 and stalling below its 50-day simple moving average at $81,831, dipping as low as $80,297 on Bitstamp. Markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, with CME FedWatch showing 90.6% odds of a pause within the current 3.75-4% range. U.S. stocks traded flat while South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 6.6%. Glassnode said bid liquidity below $80,000 is thin at about $3.4M, while the $78,000-$79,000 zone holds roughly $42M in orders, up from $24M in mid-October. Analyst Keith Alan said a 4-hour close below $80,565 would reduce the chance of retesting the 50-day SMA.
- Bitcoin price bounce rejected at 50-day trend line ahead of FOMC, earnings
Bitcoin gave back early gains on Wednesday, falling about 0.3% after failing to hold above $81,687 as markets awaited the FOMC decision and key tech earnings. Its 50-day simple moving average at $81,831 acted as local resistance, and the pair was reported to have dipped as low as $80,297 on Bitstamp. Markets broadly expected the Fed to hold rates in the 3.75-4% range, with CME FedWatch showing 90.6% odds of a pause, and attention focused on Fed chair Kevin Warsh's comments. Analysts noted the Nasdaq did not follow South Korea's KOSPI, which rose 6.6%, and that a 4-hour close below $80,565 would reduce the chance of retesting the 50-day SMA. Glassnode said bid liquidity had shifted lower, with only $3.4 million in bids at $80,000 and about $42 million clustered at $78,000-79,000, up from about $24 million in mid-October.
- Fed Rate Decision: What Markets and Bitcoin Traders Can Expect
The Fed announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to follow, and futures and prediction markets put the odds of a hold above 90%. The target range is 3.75%–4.00% after September's 12-0 hike, and inflation was 3.7% in the 12 months through September, with oil near $100 a barrel. Hiring is slowing, with employers adding just 29,000 jobs in September against forecasts of about 90,000. Higher inflation pushes up Treasury yields, with the 10-year near 5% after peaking at 5.31% on Oct. 5, which pulls money from riskier assets, and bitcoin trades around $80,700. Markets give 75% to 80% odds of another quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, and analysts call the likely outcome a 'hawkish hold'.
- Dissent and more: 3 things to watch for at the Fed meeting
The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference half an hour later. The FOMC is expected to hold the benchmark rate at 3.75%–4%; if three or more voting members favored a hike, it would signal growing urgency to tighten, potentially bolstering the Dollar Index and weighing on bitcoin. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 5%, down 36 basis points since Oct. 7, easing financial conditions. Consumer price inflation has exceeded expectations for two straight months, oil remains near $100, and U.S. diesel prices are at record highs, so Warsh's comments on inflation will be closely watched. Bitcoin was trading at $81,411, up more than 2% over 24 hours, ahead of the meeting.
- Live updates: Bitcoin climbs above $81,000 as majors rally ahead of Fed decision
Bitcoin rose 2% to just above $81,000 on Wednesday Asian morning, recovering from Monday's dip below $80,000 as traders positioned for the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Most major tokens also gained: HYPE jumped nearly 6% to just above $81, ZEC added 5% to about $1,300, DOGE rose 4%, and BNB and SOL each gained about 3%. Ether climbed 2% to about $2,360, XRP rose 3% to $1.32, and TRX gained about 1%. The bounce follows a Galaxy note saying now is the time to accumulate bitcoin, with its head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, saying the bear market likely ended in June, when bitcoin traded under $58,000. The bigger test comes when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference, as traders look for any hint of a December rate hike that would make borrowing costlier and tends to pull money from riskier assets like crypto.
- Bitcoin price eyes $82K as Morgan Stanley strategist says most of correction is over
Bitcoin approached $82,000 on Wednesday, extending its rebound as bid liquidity built up around $79,000 and $80,000, while South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said most of the tech stock correction is already over, and CME Group's FedWatch showed 90.6% odds that the Fed would keep rates in the 3.75-4% range. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital said Bitcoin's weekly chart resembles the 2022 structure, with resistance near $82,000 still unbroken and the pair yet to discard a $60,000-$80,000 accumulation range.
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- Bessent says 'not necessarily' a mistake if the Fed hikes again
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke to CNBC after the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision, just days before an election that will determine the balance of power in Washington. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as the market had widely expected, after pausing its rate hikes. Bessent said it would be 'not necessarily' a mistake if the Fed needed to raise rates at its December meeting. Fed funds futures traders put the probability of a December rate hike at more than 83%. Bessent is a key confidant of President Donald Trump, whose Republican Party is counting down to next week's midterm elections, and the outcome of several key races could determine whether the GOP retains total control in Washington.
- Nvidia's $12.9 billion Hugging Face deal draws DOJ scrutiny
The U.S. Department of Justice is examining Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face, an open-source platform for hosting and testing AI models, and how the deal may affect competitors. CNBC confirmed the probe with a source, after Reuters first reported the inquiry on Wednesday. Nvidia announced the nearly $13 billion deal in September, saying it would expand access to AI for developers and institutions worldwide. Hugging Face has over 18 million users and 200,000 companies, which share at least 3 million models and 500,000 datasets on the platform. The deal is Nvidia's second-biggest purchase after its $20 billion Groq asset deal at the end of last year, which also drew DOJ scrutiny. Nvidia declined to comment.
- Alphabet Q3 earnings: Google misses Wall Street estimates
Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) reported third-quarter earnings per share of $2.12, short of Wall Street's $3.01 estimate. Revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs came in at $111.21 billion, narrowly missing expectations of $111.29 billion.
- Alphabet: Q3 Earnings Snapshot
Alphabet (GOOGL) reported third-quarter earnings of $26.47 billion, with net income of $2.12 per share, missing Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Zacks was $2.94 per share. Revenue for the period was $127.58 billion, and after subtracting Alphabet's advertising commissions it came to $111.21 billion, also below the $111.8 billion forecast by nine analysts surveyed by Zacks.
- CME Group (CME) Stock Sees Fair Value Lift As Analysts Back Record Volumes
A recent model update raised CME Group's fair value estimate from US$292 to US$316, feeding into price targets in the US$300 to US$360 range. Analysts tie these targets to record Q3 volumes, the current interest rate backdrop, and new contracts such as crypto and compute-related futures. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo raised their targets into the US$300s, while BofA keeps an Underperform rating, lifts its target into the low US$200s and cites valuation and modeling updates rather than a change in fundamental thesis. Deutsche Bank moved to Hold with a US$270 target, saying the upside has narrowed after the stock's prior rally. The model's revenue growth assumption also shifted from 5.65% to 6.08%.
- ServiceNow launches Control Tower Alliance to help enterprises adopt AI safely at scale
ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) has launched the Control Tower Alliance, a new ecosystem of AI, cloud infrastructure, security and governance companies working with it to help enterprises adopt AI safely at scale. Founding members include Anthropic, AWS, Cisco, HiddenLayer, Kong, NVIDIA, Okta, OpenAI, Stripe, WitnessAI and Zenity. The alliance offers curated, pretested solutions pre-integrated with the Super Intelligence Control Tower, a centralized platform to discover, secure, govern, observe and measure enterprise AI. Partners can build on the platform, deliver certified pre-integrated solutions, or sell jointly through ServiceNow's global channels. The alliance will coexist with the ServiceNow Store and Workflow Data Network Partner Passport programs.
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