CoreWeave fell 23.85% in the week ended October 19 to close at $61.12, while Nebius Group dropped 18.96%, after Gartner chief forecaster John Lovelock said more than 80% of independent neocloud companies will stop operating independently by 2030, possibly through mergers rather than bankruptcy. Lovelock set an 18% return on invested capital hurdle and said revenue for companies with simple business models will be insufficient until 2032. CoreWeave lost $626 million on $2.58 billion of second-quarter revenue, its interest expense rose to $640 million, and it plans $35 billion to $39 billion of capex this year, while Nebius spent $8.13 billion on capex in the first half of 2026 and carries about $10.0 billion of convertible debt. On the other side, CoreWeave reports $104 billion of backlog and raised prices about 25%, and Nebius's first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous high. The article concludes that risks for the group appear to outweigh the protection their backlogs offer, and that Microsoft and Amazon are better positioned.
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Related tickers and likely impact
MSFT
▼ Likely negativeMicrosoft
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Systems Software |
| Market cap | $4.0T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 533.52 |
| Change that session | +0.84% |
NVDA
▼ Likely negativeNvidia
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.2T |
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 217.09 |
| Change that session | +1.38% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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